14 May 1948 (war Nov 1947 – 1949) Key event
Political Military Territorial change
After the UN General Assembly recommends partition of Mandatory Palestine in Resolution 181 (29 November 1947), fighting begins between the communities. Israel declares independence on 14 May 1948, the Mandate ends, and the armies of neighbouring Arab states enter the war. Several hundred thousand Palestinian Arabs are displaced from the territory that becomes Israel.
Why it mattersThe state, the refugee question and the territorial division that every later instrument refers back to date from this war. No Palestinian state was established; Gaza came under Egyptian administration and the West Bank and East Jerusalem under Jordanian rule, which is why 1949, not 1947, drew the lines that still matter.
Feb – Jul 1949 Key event Essential
Diplomatic Territorial change
Israel signs General Armistice Agreements with Egypt (24 February), Lebanon (23 March), Jordan (3 April) and Syria (20 July 1949). The lines are expressly military demarcations, without prejudice to any future political settlement. The Israel–Lebanon line follows the Mandate-era boundary.
Why it mattersThe Israel–Jordan and Israel–Egypt armistice lines became the "Green Line" that still defines what the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are, and against which settlement, the barrier and annexation measures are measured. The Israel–Lebanon line is the reference the 2000 Blue Line approximates. None of these lines is an agreed border, and the module never treats one as such.
8 Dec 1949 (operations from May 1950) Key event
Humanitarian Diplomatic
General Assembly Resolution 302 (IV) establishes the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, which begins operations in 1950 in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.
Why it mattersA temporary agency became the main provider of schools, clinics and relief for Palestinian refugees across the module's geography, including the camps of Gaza, the northern West Bank and Lebanon. That is why Israel's 2024 legislation against it, the 2025 ICJ opinion on Israel's obligations towards it, and its funding are system questions rather than administrative ones.
5 – 10 Jun 1967 Key event Essential
Military Territorial change
In six days of war with Egypt, Jordan and Syria, Israel takes the Gaza Strip and Sinai from Egypt, the West Bank including East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. Israel extends its law and administration to an enlarged East Jerusalem municipal area at the end of June 1967.
Why it mattersEvery Palestinian territory this module covers has been under Israeli control, in some form, since this war. The UN and the ICJ describe the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza as occupied Palestinian territory; Israel disputes that characterisation. The Golan, taken in the same war, is Syria's record in Vigil and is not authored here.
22 Nov 1967 Key event
Diplomatic Territorial change
The Security Council unanimously emphasises the inadmissibility of acquiring territory by war and calls for withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict, together with termination of all claims of belligerency and respect for every state's right to live within secure and recognised boundaries.
Why it mattersResolution 242, reaffirmed by Resolution 338 after the 1973 war, is the reference text of the Egypt–Israel treaty, the Israel–Jordan treaty and the Oslo accords. Its English and French versions are read differently on how much territory withdrawal covers, and that ambiguity is part of the frame, not a footnote to it.
3 Nov 1969 (PLO move to Lebanon 1970–71) Key event
Political Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Lebanon's army commander and the PLO sign an Egyptian-brokered agreement regulating Palestinian armed activity from Lebanese territory. After the PLO's expulsion from Jordan in 1970–71, Lebanon becomes its principal base, and southern Lebanon a front with Israel.
Why it mattersIt made the Lebanese state's monopoly of arms a negotiated exception decades before the Hezbollah question, and turned the Israel–Lebanon frontier from a quiet armistice line into an active front. The Lebanese civil war from 1975 and every Israeli operation in Lebanon from 1978 run through the space this agreement opened.
14 – 19 Mar 1978 Key event
Military Diplomatic Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israel moves into southern Lebanon up to the Litani river against PLO forces. On 19 March 1978 the Security Council adopts Resolutions 425 and 426, calling for Israeli withdrawal and establishing the UN Interim Force in Lebanon to confirm it and assist the Lebanese government in restoring its authority in the area.
Why it mattersUNIFIL has been the standing international presence south of the Litani for nearly half a century, and the Litani the reference line of every later arrangement. Resolution 2790 (2025) ends its operations on 31 December 2026, so the oldest component of the Israel–Lebanon architecture is the one now being removed.
26 Mar 1979 Key event
Diplomatic Territorial change Regional interface
Following the 1978 Camp David accords, Egypt and Israel sign a peace treaty. Israel withdraws from Sinai by April 1982 under a security annex that limits forces in defined zones, verified by the Multinational Force and Observers. The Gaza Strip is not returned to Egypt.
Why it mattersEgypt's role in the system — mediator, guarantor and operator of the Rafah crossing — rests on this treaty and its security annex. Israel's control of the Philadelphi corridor since May 2024 and the deployment of forces on both sides of the Gaza–Sinai border are argued in the treaty's terms.
30 Jul 1980 Key event
Political Territorial change West Bank & Jerusalem
The Knesset passes Basic Law: Jerusalem, Capital of Israel, declaring "Jerusalem, complete and united" the capital. On 20 August 1980 the Security Council, in Resolution 478 (14–0, with the United States abstaining), declares the law null and void and calls on states to withdraw diplomatic missions from the city.
Why it mattersIt fixed the two positions the module attributes and never decides: Israel's law treats the city as its undivided capital, while the UN position treats East Jerusalem as occupied territory. The residency, planning and access mechanisms the module records in East Jerusalem operate inside that unresolved status.
6 Jun 1982 (PLO evacuation Aug – Sep 1982) Key event
Military Political Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israel invades Lebanon and reaches Beirut. Under a US-brokered arrangement the PLO leadership and fighters are evacuated from Beirut in August 1982, and the PLO's headquarters moves to Tunis.
Why it mattersThe war removed the PLO from the Israel–Lebanon front and, in the same years, created the conditions for the organisation that replaced it there. Hezbollah's emergence, a two-decade Israeli presence in southern Lebanon and the PLO's later turn to negotiation all start from 1982.
1982 – 1985 Key event
Military Political Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Hezbollah forms among Lebanese Shia from 1982 with Iranian Revolutionary Guard support, and announces itself publicly in an open letter in February 1985. Israel withdraws in 1985 to a self-declared security zone along the border, held with the South Lebanon Army until 2000.
Why it mattersThe armed organisation at the centre of every Israel–Lebanon arrangement since — 1701, the 2024 cessation, the 2025 arms-monopoly decisions and the 2026 framework — and its supply relationship with Iran both originate here. Hezbollah's fifteen-year campaign against the security zone is the basis of the "resistance" claim it uses to justify keeping its arms.
Dec 1987 – 1993 Key event
Political Military
A Palestinian uprising against Israeli rule begins in Gaza and spreads to the West Bank. In December 1987 the Muslim Brotherhood's Gaza leadership founds the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, outside the PLO.
Why it mattersThe uprising moved the centre of Palestinian politics into the territories and, with Jordan's disengagement from the West Bank in July 1988, left the PLO as the only Palestinian interlocutor. Hamas's founding outside the PLO is the origin of the split that has defined Palestinian governance since 2007.
9 – 13 Sep 1993 Key event
Diplomatic Political
Israel and the PLO exchange letters of mutual recognition on 9 September 1993 and sign the Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements in Washington on 13 September. It provides for a five-year interim period of Palestinian self-government, with permanent-status issues — Jerusalem, refugees, settlements, borders and security — deferred to later negotiation.
Why it mattersThe interim period was meant to end in 1999 and was never replaced. The deferred permanent-status issues remain undecided, which is why so much of the present system is interim arrangements outliving their own timetable.
29 Apr – 4 May 1994 Key event Essential
Political Economic West Bank & Jerusalem
The Gaza–Jericho Agreement, signed in Cairo on 4 May 1994, establishes the Palestinian Authority. It incorporates the Protocol on Economic Relations signed in Paris on 29 April, under which Israel collects customs and VAT on goods bound for the Palestinian territories and transfers the proceeds — "clearance revenue" — to the PA, less fees and deductions.
Why it mattersThe Paris Protocol is the root of the PA's present fiscal dependence: clearance revenue has historically been the largest part of its income, so Israeli withholding and deductions translate directly into PA salary cuts. Israel's suspension of transfers in 2025 and the June 2026 deduction law operate on this 1994 mechanism.
26 Oct 1994 Key event
Diplomatic Territorial change Regional interface
Israel and Jordan sign a peace treaty at Wadi Araba that fixes their international boundary, sets water-sharing arrangements in an annex, and records Israel's respect for Jordan's special role in the Muslim holy shrines in Jerusalem.
Why it mattersJordan's interface with the system — the Allenby / King Hussein Bridge crossing, water and gas supply, and its role at Jerusalem's holy sites — rests on this treaty. The boundary it fixed does not extend to the West Bank, whose status the treaty leaves to the Israeli–Palestinian track.
28 Sep 1995 Key event Essential
Political Territorial change West Bank & Jerusalem
The Israeli–Palestinian Interim Agreement, signed in Washington, divides the West Bank into Area A (Palestinian civil and security control), Area B (Palestinian civil, Israeli security control) and Area C (Israeli civil and security control), with further Israeli redeployments that were never completed. It sets up joint security and civil coordination.
Why it mattersArea C — roughly 60 per cent of the West Bank by commonly cited measures — remains under full Israeli control three decades on, and is where land registration, planning, demolition and settlement decisions are taken. The A/B/C map is formally in force and de facto eroded; the module records both facts.
24 May 2000 (line confirmed Jun 2000) Key event Essential
Military Territorial change Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israel withdraws its forces from southern Lebanon and the South Lebanon Army collapses. The UN identifies a line of withdrawal — the Blue Line — and in June 2000 the Secretary-General reports that Israel has withdrawn in compliance with Resolution 425. Lebanon disputes the line at several points, and Lebanon claims the Shebaa Farms, which the UN treats as part of the Israeli-occupied Golan.
Why it mattersThe Blue Line is the reference line of 1701, the 2024 cessation and the 2026 framework, and it is a withdrawal line, not an agreed border. The disputed points and the Shebaa Farms are why "border demarcation" recurs in every Israel–Lebanon negotiation, and why Hezbollah could claim a continuing reason to keep its arms after 2000.
Sep 2000 – 2005 Key event
Military Political West Bank & Jerusalem
After the failure of the Camp David permanent-status summit in July 2000, a second Palestinian uprising begins at the end of September, marked by suicide bombings inside Israel and Israeli military operations. In Operation Defensive Shield from 29 March 2002, Israeli forces re-enter the Area A cities of the West Bank.
Why it mattersIsraeli forces have operated across Area A since 2002, so the Oslo division of security control has not described military reality for over two decades. The uprising also ended the permanent-status track in its 1990s form and produced the separation measures — the barrier, the permit regime, disengagement — that structure the West Bank and Gaza today.
Jun 2002 (ICJ opinion 9 Jul 2004) Key event
Territorial change Political West Bank & Jerusalem
Israel's government approves the construction of a barrier, which it describes as a security measure against attacks. Its route runs largely inside the West Bank rather than along the Green Line. On 9 July 2004 the International Court of Justice, in an advisory opinion requested by the General Assembly, finds construction of the wall in the occupied Palestinian territory, including in and around East Jerusalem, contrary to international law; Israel rejects the opinion.
Why it mattersThe barrier and the permit regime around it — the "seam zone", the Jerusalem checkpoints — shape movement and access in the West Bank and East Jerusalem today. The 2004 opinion is the legal precedent the Court built on in its 2024 opinion on Israel's policies and practices.
2 Sep 2004 Key event
Diplomatic Political Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The Security Council (9–0, with six abstentions) calls for the withdrawal of all remaining foreign forces from Lebanon and the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, and supports the extension of the Lebanese government's control over all its territory.
Why it mattersIt is the text that makes Hezbollah's disarmament a whole-of-Lebanon obligation rather than a south-of-the-Litani one. Resolution 1701 incorporates it, the Secretary-General still reports on it twice a year, and the dispute over whether the 2024 cessation applies north of the Litani is a dispute about its reach.
15 Aug – 12 Sep 2005 (AMA 15 Nov 2005) Key event
Territorial change Political Gaza
Israel evacuates all its settlements in the Gaza Strip and four in the northern West Bank, and withdraws its forces from inside Gaza by 12 September 2005, while keeping control of Gaza's airspace, territorial waters and most of its crossings. The Agreement on Movement and Access of 15 November 2005 reopens Rafah under an EU border-assistance mission.
Why it mattersDisengagement removed the Israeli ground presence without settling Gaza's status: whether Israel's continued control of borders, sea and air amounts to occupation is disputed, and the ICJ's 2024 opinion addressed it. The EU mission created in 2005 is the one redeployed to Rafah in February 2026.
25 Jan 2006 Key event
Political
Hamas wins a majority of seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council and forms a government. The Quartet conditions assistance on recognition of Israel, renunciation of violence and acceptance of previous agreements, which Hamas does not accept.
Why it mattersIt was the last Palestinian legislative election held. The split between a Hamas majority and a Fatah-led presidency that it produced became territorial in 2007, and the absence of any electoral mandate since is why the PA's succession and its repeatedly rescheduled elections — now set for September 2027 — are open questions.
12 Jul – 14 Aug 2006 (adopted 11 Aug) Key event Essential
Diplomatic Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
A Hezbollah cross-border raid on 12 July 2006 opens a 34-day war. On 11 August the Security Council unanimously adopts Resolution 1701, calling for a full cessation of hostilities, deployment of the Lebanese army and an enlarged UNIFIL south of the Litani as Israel withdraws, an area between the Blue Line and the Litani free of armed personnel and weapons other than the state's and UNIFIL's, and full implementation of Resolution 1559. Hostilities stop on 14 August.
Why it mattersResolution 1701 is still the reference frame for every later Israel–Lebanon instrument; the 2024 cessation and Resolution 2790 both invoke it. It does not lapse with UNIFIL at the end of 2026, which is why the question after that date is who implements it, not whether it applies.
Jun 2007 Key event Essential
Political Military Gaza
After fighting with Fatah-aligned forces, Hamas takes control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007. The PA president dismisses the Hamas-led government and appoints a government in Ramallah; from then on the PA governs in parts of the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza.
Why it mattersTwo Palestinian authorities, in two territories, is the governing fact the whole post-2007 system is built on: the closure of Gaza, the separate arrangements for each territory, and the 2025 plans that exclude Hamas from Gaza's governance and make the PA's return conditional on reform. No reconciliation agreement since has reunified them.
19 Sep 2007 Key event
Economic Humanitarian Political Gaza
Israel's security cabinet declares the Gaza Strip "hostile territory" and authorises restrictions on the movement of goods, fuel and people. With Egypt's control of Rafah, the closure becomes the standing regime for Gaza, punctuated by rounds of war in 2008–09, 2012, 2014 and 2021.
Why it mattersThe crossing-based access system the module records — what enters through Kerem Shalom, whether Rafah opens, which goods count as dual-use — is the institutional descendant of this decision. Israel describes it as a security measure against Hamas; UN bodies and rights groups describe it as a blockade affecting the whole population. Both characterisations are attributed.
23 Dec 2016 Key event
Diplomatic Territorial change West Bank & Jerusalem
The Security Council adopts Resolution 2334 (14–0, with the United States abstaining), stating that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, have no legal validity, and calling on states to distinguish between Israel's territory and the territories occupied since 1967.
Why it mattersIt is the most recent Council resolution on settlements and the basis of the Secretary-General's quarterly reporting on them, which still runs. It is the yardstick against which the 2025 settlement approvals, the E1 decision and the February 2026 land measures are reported by the UN; Israel rejects the resolution.
27 Oct 2022 Key event
Diplomatic Energy Maritime Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israel and Lebanon, which have no diplomatic relations, conclude a US-mediated maritime boundary arrangement through an exchange of letters, deposited with the United Nations. It allocates the Karish field to Israel's side and the Qana prospect to Lebanon's, with a royalty arrangement.
Why it mattersIt is the only agreed Israel–Lebanon line and the precedent for the direct, US-facilitated negotiation format of 2026. It shows that the two states can settle a boundary question by instrument while the land line remains a withdrawal line; the module records no reported change to it through the 2026 war.
7 Oct 2023 Key event Essential
Military Humanitarian Gaza
Hamas-led armed groups break through the Gaza perimeter and attack Israeli communities, military posts and a music festival in southern Israel. Israeli figures put the dead at about 1,200 and the number taken hostage into Gaza at 251. Israel declares a state of war.
Why it mattersThe attack ended the post-2007 Gaza arrangement and opened the war from which every current Gaza, Lebanon and regional instrument descends. Hostages held in Gaza were the central term of the January 2025 and October 2025 ceasefires; the last remains were recovered in January 2026.
8 Oct 2023 – Sep 2024 Key event
Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Hezbollah begins firing on Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms area on 8 October 2023, stating it acts in support of Gaza. Nearly a year of cross-border exchanges follows, and communities on both sides of the Blue Line are evacuated.
Why it mattersIt tied the Lebanon front to Gaza, a linkage Hezbollah maintained until the November 2024 cessation and resumed in March 2026. The displacement of northern Israel and southern Lebanon that began here made the return of residents a war aim and a negotiating term.
27 Oct 2023 onward Key event
Military Humanitarian Gaza
After three weeks of air strikes and an evacuation order for northern Gaza, Israel launches ground operations in the Strip in its war, which it calls "Swords of Iron", with the declared aims of destroying Hamas's military and governing capabilities and returning the hostages. Most of Gaza's population is displaced in the course of the war.
Why it mattersThe war destroyed most of Gaza's housing and infrastructure and displaced most of its population, which is why reconstruction, shelter and access dominate the Gaza records. Fatality totals are carried only as attributed figures: the Ministry of Health in Gaza reports more than 70,000 killed since 7 October 2023 as of 2026, a count that does not distinguish combatants and that Israeli officials dispute.
May 2024 Key event
Military Territorial change Humanitarian Gaza
Israeli forces take the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing in early May 2024 and complete control of the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza–Egypt border by the end of the month. The crossing stays shut to people until February 2026.
Why it mattersFor the first time since 2005 Israel controls Gaza's border with Egypt, which turned the Gaza–Sinai interface into an Israel–Egypt treaty question and made Israeli withdrawal from the corridor a recurring ceasefire term. Control of the southern edge of the Strip is part of what the October 2025 "Yellow Line" left with Israel.
19 Jul 2024 (UNGA ES-10/24, 18 Sep 2024) Key event
Diplomatic Territorial change West Bank & Jerusalem
In an advisory opinion requested by the General Assembly, the International Court of Justice finds, by 11 votes to 4, that Israel's continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and that Israel is obliged to end it as rapidly as possible; in separate findings, each by 14 votes to 1, that Israel must cease new settlement activity and evacuate settlers, and must make reparation (paragraph 285). On 18 September 2024 the General Assembly, in Resolution ES-10/24 (124–14–43), demands an end to that presence within twelve months. Israel rejects the opinion.
Why it mattersThe opinion is not binding, but it is the Court's statement of the law that UN bodies, many states and the 2025 recognitions of Palestine now cite. The General Assembly's twelve-month deadline passed in September 2025 without legal consequence of its own — the module records the opinion as a frame, not as an enforcement mechanism.
23 Sep – Nov 2024 Key event
Military Leadership change Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israel launches an air campaign against Hezbollah across Lebanon on 23 September 2024 under the name "Northern Arrows". Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs on 27 September, and Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon begin on 1 October.
Why it mattersThe campaign removed much of Hezbollah's senior leadership and broke its linkage of the Lebanon front to Gaza, producing the November 2024 cessation that Hezbollah did not sign. Naim Qassem has led the organisation since, and the 2025 Lebanese arms-monopoly decisions were taken against a weakened Hezbollah.
28 Oct 2024 (in force Jan 2025) Key event
Humanitarian Political
The Knesset passes two laws barring UNRWA from operating in territory under Israeli sovereignty and prohibiting contact between Israeli state bodies and the agency. They take effect at the end of January 2025. A December 2025 amendment extends the prohibited "contact" to electricity, water and banking services for UNRWA facilities.
Why it mattersIsrael's legislation turned UNRWA's operating status into a legal and humanitarian-access question in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. Israel's position is that the agency is compromised; the ICJ in its October 2025 advisory opinion rejected Israel's neutrality allegations and found Israel obliged to facilitate relief including by UNRWA. Both are attributed.
26 – 27 Nov 2024 Key event Essential
Diplomatic Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The United States and France announce a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, effective at 04:00 on 27 November 2024; its thirteen-paragraph text is circulated to the Security Council as the annex to S/2024/870. Lebanon undertakes to prevent attacks by Hezbollah and other armed groups and to confine arms to listed official forces, "starting with" the area south of the Litani; Israel is to withdraw south of the Blue Line within 60 days as the Lebanese army deploys, towards a target of 10,000 troops in the south. A US-chaired Mechanism with France, UNIFIL, Israel and Lebanon monitors it. Hezbollah is not a party.
Why it mattersIt set the terms — state monopoly of arms, phased withdrawal, a US-chaired monitor — that the 2025 Lebanese cabinet decisions and the 2026 instruments carried forward. Whether its disarmament obligation covers all of Lebanon is disputed between Israel and Hezbollah. It was overtaken by the 2026 war without formal termination; the UN records that the Mechanism suspended its meetings on 18 March 2026.
19 Jan – 18 Mar 2025 Key event
Diplomatic Military Gaza
A three-phase ceasefire and hostage-release agreement between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States and announced in Doha on 15 January, takes effect on 19 January 2025. Its first phase exchanges 33 hostages for Palestinian prisoners. The second phase is never agreed, and Israel resumes large-scale strikes on Gaza on 18 March 2025.
Why it mattersIts failure set the pattern the October 2025 agreement was built to avoid: an exchange-first phase followed by unresolved terms on withdrawal, governance and Hamas's arms. The full text was never officially published; the module records the reported terms as reported.
21 Jan 2025 onward Key event
Military Humanitarian West Bank & Jerusalem
Israel launches Operation "Iron Wall" in Jenin refugee camp, immediately after a PA security operation there, and extends it to the Tulkarm and Nur Shams camps. In a report published on 4 September 2026 covering 5 December 2024 to 31 January 2026, OHCHR found 33,362 people still displaced from the northern camps, which had not reopened for return.
Why it mattersIt is the largest displacement in the West Bank since 1967 by UN accounts, and it removed the camps as both armed-group bases and inhabited places. The camps' closure is a standing condition in the module's humanitarian records; whether the operation has formally ended is not established.
18 Feb 2025 Key event
Military Territorial change Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
After the cessation's withdrawal deadline is extended to 18 February 2025, Israel withdraws from most of southern Lebanon but retains five hilltop positions north of the Blue Line. The UN reports that it also maintains two "buffer zones" north of the line.
Why it mattersThe retained positions became Hezbollah's stated reason not to disarm and Lebanon's first demand in every later round. Resolution 2790 calls for their evacuation; the 2026 war replaced them with a far larger Israeli-held zone.
May 2025 Key event
Economic Political West Bank & Jerusalem
According to the World Bank, Israel completely suspended transfers of clearance revenue to the PA in May 2025. The PA subsequently paid public salaries at roughly 50–60 per cent. Israel's finance minister has described the freeze as a response to the PA's international moves and its payments to prisoners' families.
Why it mattersIt converted the Paris Protocol's collection arrangement into the PA's most acute constraint, and it is the context of the June 2026 law that puts deductions into statute. The PA's and Israel's cumulative "withheld" totals measure different things and are never compared as one figure.
5 Aug – 5 Sep 2025 Key event
Political Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The government formed in early 2025 under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam tasks the Lebanese army on 5 August 2025 with a plan to confine arms, before the end of the year, solely to the forces listed in the 2024 cessation. On 7 August it approves the objectives of a US paper, among them the gradual ending of the armed presence of all non-state actors, including Hezbollah, across Lebanese territory south and north of the Litani. On 5 September it welcomes and takes note of the army's phased plan and keeps its content secret. Hezbollah rejects the decisions.
Why it mattersFor the first time a Lebanese government formally committed the state to disarming Hezbollah, moving the question from a UN text to a cabinet decision executed by the army. The cabinet approved objectives and took note of a plan rather than adopting a public timetable; the army reported its first phase, south of the Litani, complete in January 2026.
22 Aug 2025 Key event
Humanitarian Gaza
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification's Famine Review Committee confirms famine (Phase 5) in Gaza Governorate. Israel rejects the finding and disputes its methodology. By December 2025 the IPC classifies no area in famine.
Why it mattersIt was the first famine classification in the Middle East and made food access a measured, dated condition rather than a contested description. The module carries IPC classifications as the partnership's findings with Israel's rejection attributed beside them.
28 Aug 2025 Key event
Diplomatic Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The Security Council unanimously extends UNIFIL's mandate "for a final time" to 31 December 2026, after which the force ceases operations and withdraws within one year. It calls on Israel to withdraw north of the Blue Line, including from the five positions, and asks the Secretary-General for options for implementing 1701 after UNIFIL by 1 June 2026. The United States states this is the last extension it will support.
Why it mattersIt sets a fixed end to the international presence south of the Litani with no successor decided, which makes 31 December 2026 the module's most consequential scheduled date on the Lebanon front. The Secretary-General's options letter of 1 June 2026 has not, as of October 2026, produced a Council decision.
29 Sep – 13 Oct 2025 Key event Essential
Diplomatic Military Gaza
The US President releases a 20-point plan on 29 September 2025, which Israel's prime minister accepts. Israel and Hamas agree its first phase at Sharm el-Sheikh on 8–9 October, and a ceasefire takes effect on 10 October as Israeli forces pull back to a "Yellow Line" that, by reported estimates, leaves Israel controlling just over half the Strip. All living hostages are released by 13 October in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
Why it mattersIt is the ceasefire in force, with continuing Israeli strikes and violations alleged by both sides, and the 20-point plan is the framework later endorsed by Resolution 2803. The Yellow Line has since moved: Israel's prime minister directed in May 2026 that control reach 70 per cent, and in October 2026 Israel put the area it holds at about 60 per cent (AFP); no independent measurement was found. The line is an Israeli military designation, not a fixed boundary.
17 Nov 2025 Key event Essential
Diplomatic Political Gaza
The Security Council adopts Resolution 2803 by 13 votes to none, with China and Russia abstaining. It endorses the US 20-point plan, annexed to the resolution, and welcomes a Board of Peace as a transitional administration with international legal personality until the PA has completed its reform programme (OP2). It authorises member states working with the Board to establish a temporary, non-UN International Stabilization Force with demilitarisation, border and civilian-protection tasks (OP7), authorises both until 31 December 2027 (OP8), and requests a Board report every six months (OP10).
Why it mattersIt gave the 2025 arrangements a Council mandate and placed Gaza's interim governance in a body outside both the PA and the UN, with Israeli withdrawal tied to demilitarisation milestones rather than dates and no disarmament timetable or withdrawal line in the text. The Board's first report (S/2026/418, 15 May 2026) recorded no force deployed and the technocratic committee not yet in Gaza — the mandate exists, its instruments largely do not yet.
16 Jan 2026 Key event
Political Diplomatic Gaza
A White House statement names the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, chaired by Ali Sha'ath; a High Representative for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov; the Board of Peace's executive board; and Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers as commander of the International Stabilization Force. The United States declares the ceasefire's second phase in mid-January.
Why it mattersThese are the offices through which 2803 is supposed to work. Their gap between appointment and presence — the committee based in Cairo, the force not deployed — is the measure the module watches for Gaza's governance.
2 Feb 2026
Humanitarian Diplomatic Gaza
The Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopens for the movement of people on 2 February 2026, with the EU Border Assistance Mission redeployed. It is closed from 28 February to 19 March and has opened intermittently since. The EU renewed the mission on 28 September 2026 to 30 June 2027.
Why it mattersIt is the only crossing for people that does not pass through Israel, and its operating model reuses the 2005 movement-and-access arrangement. Its intermittent status, rather than any single opening, is what the module's access records track.
15 Feb 2026 (precursor 11 May 2025) Key event
Territorial change Political West Bank & Jerusalem
On 15 February 2026 Israel's government approves restarting formal settlement of land title in Area C — suspended by military order since 1968 — through the Justice Ministry's land registration authority, with a target of at least 15 per cent of unsettled land registered by the end of 2030. The decision builds on security-cabinet decision B/187 of 11 May 2025, which ordered the process resumed; a further security-cabinet package of West Bank land measures was reported on 8 February 2026. Israel's foreign ministry presents it as clarifying land rights; Palestinian leaders, Arab governments and Israeli rights groups describe it as a step towards annexation.
Why it mattersAssigning Area C land registration to a civilian ministry shifts administration of the territory from the military government toward Israeli state bodies, the mechanism on which the annexation debate turns. It is a decision, read from its draft text; the adopted wording, the implementing amendments to military orders and the first registered blocks are what the module watches.
28 Feb – Apr 2026 Key event
Humanitarian Energy Economic Regional interface
On the opening day of the war with Iran, Israel closes all Gaza crossings, including Rafah, as a security measure; Kerem Shalom reopens for aid from 3 March. The Leviathan and Karish gas fields are shut the same day; Leviathan restarts after about a month. Energy shortfalls follow in Egypt and Jordan, which import Israeli gas.
Why it mattersThe war itself is Iran–Gulf's record (iran-gulf-war-opens); this event is its Levant consequence. It showed how directly a regional war reaches Gaza's access and the gas interface with Egypt and Jordan, and since 24 May 2026 Kerem Shalom has been Gaza's only cargo crossing.
2 Mar 2026 Key event Essential
Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
In the opening days of the war with Iran, Hezbollah fires rockets and drones at Israel on 2 March 2026. Israel responds with air strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and southern Lebanon that extend across the country.
Why it mattersIt ended the 2024 cessation in practice and re-founded the Israel–Lebanon front: every instrument that now governs it — the April cessation, the Israeli-held zone, the Trilateral Framework — follows from this decision. The opening of the Iran war is Iran–Gulf's record (iran-gulf-war-opens); Hezbollah's entry is the Levant event.
2 Mar 2026 Key event
Political Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
In an emergency session the same day, the Lebanese cabinet decides an immediate ban on all of Hezbollah's security and military activities as unlawful, obliges it to hand its weapons to the state and confine itself to political activity, and instructs the army to implement its plan north of the Litani. Hezbollah's ministers remain in the government.
Why it mattersThe Lebanese state declared, in its own name, that Hezbollah's military activity is outside the law — the furthest any Lebanese government has gone. Whether the ban has been enforced is not established. Parliament extended its own term to May 2028 the same month, postponing elections.
~16 Mar 2026 onward Key event
Military Humanitarian Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israeli ground forces enter southern Lebanon from about 16 March 2026; IDF statements name the 91st and 36th Divisions. Displacement in Lebanon peaks above one million people according to IOM tracking.
Why it mattersThe ground campaign produced the Israeli-held zone that now defines the front and the displacement that remains: IOM counted about 341,000 people internally displaced as of 15 September 2026. Lebanese casualty totals are carried only as the Ministry of Public Health's figures, attributed.
16 Apr 2026 (extended 23 Apr, 15 May) Key event
Diplomatic Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The US State Department publishes the "Ten Day Cessation of Hostilities to Enable Peace Negotiations Between Israel and Lebanon", agreed by both governments. Israel refrains from offensive operations while keeping self-defence against planned, imminent or ongoing attacks; Lebanon commits to take meaningful steps to prevent attacks by Hezbollah and other non-state armed groups; only the Lebanese state's listed forces may bear arms; and the two states, stating they are "not at war", commit to direct US-facilitated negotiations, including on demarcation of the land boundary. It is extended by three weeks on 23 April and by 45 days on 15 May.
Why it mattersIt moved Israel and Lebanon into direct negotiation between the two governments, without Hezbollah and outside the 2024 Mechanism, whose meetings had been suspended in March — the format that produced the June framework. It names no monitoring body and no withdrawal terms. A conditional ceasefire was agreed on 3 June, and the UN records a Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire in effect from 19 June.
Apr 2026 (IDF map 19 Apr) Key event
Military Territorial change Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The IDF declares a "forward defence line" in southern Lebanon, which Israel also calls the "Yellow Line". According to the UN Secretary-General's report, an IDF map of 19 April shows an area up to 10 km north of the Blue Line, including some territory north of the Litani and some 55 Lebanese villages, and a band at sea north of the agreed maritime border; a June map shows it expanded. Israel says it has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon.
Why it mattersIsrael's presence in Lebanon grew from five positions to a zone of tens of villages, and its reduction is now what the Trilateral Framework's withdrawal-after-disarmament sequence is about. The module never draws the line, which has no agreed geometry, and keeps it distinct from the Gaza Yellow Line.
8 Jun 2026 Key event
Economic Political West Bank & Jerusalem
The Knesset passes, at second and third readings and by 29 votes to 5, a law under which a yearly amount is deducted from clearance revenue due to the PA, set by the Ministerial Committee for National Security Affairs on a report from the finance minister. It builds on a 2018 law deducting the PA's payments to prisoners and their families.
Why it mattersDeductions that had been ministerial decisions became law, which makes them harder for a future Israeli government to reverse by policy alone. With the correspondent-banking arrangement extended only to the end of 2026 (the reported horizon), the PA's fiscal channel to Israel faces two decisions after the October 2026 election. The law is an amendment to the 2018 Freezing Law (bill no. 1124, published 10 June 2026, per the Knesset Shkufa tracker; the official Reshumot text has not been read).
19 Jun 2026 (US–Iran memorandum announced 14 Jun) Key event
Military Diplomatic Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
The UN Secretary-General's report S/2026/566 records a US–Iran memorandum of understanding, announced on 14 June 2026, that also stipulated a cessation of hostilities on the Lebanese front, and a Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire that came into effect on 19 June. Reuters, quoting a US official, reported that it was reached through US and Qatari mediation. Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon behind the forward defence line.
Why it mattersIt ended the fighting that began on 2 March without ending the Israeli presence, which is why the Trilateral Framework signed a week later is about withdrawal sequenced against disarmament rather than about a ceasefire, on which it is silent. Hezbollah is not a party to the state-to-state instruments; this ceasefire is the one arrangement that bears on its own fire. The US–Iran memorandum belongs to Iran–Gulf's record of the war.
26 Jun 2026 Key event Essential
Diplomatic Military Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
Israel and Lebanon sign a Trilateral Framework in Washington "with the full support of the United States". It declares an intent to end the conflict and formally conclude any state of war, and sets a "reciprocal, sequenced process": the Lebanese army restores sovereign authority pending verified disarmament of non-state armed groups, enabling the IDF to redeploy progressively out of Lebanon, zone by zone, starting from two initial pilot zones. It commits to a military coordination group with US participation, which the US Secretary of State's statement names the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon. A security annex is to complement it.
Why it mattersIt is the instrument that now governs the Israel–Lebanon front, and it sets no withdrawal timeline and no end date. It does not mention Resolution 1701, UNIFIL, the Security Council, the Blue Line or the Litani, and contains no ceasefire terms. The security annex has not been published and is known only from a leaked text. Hezbollah is not bound, and its leader is reported to have called the framework "null and void".
17 Jul 2026 Key event
Political
The Knesset votes to dissolve, setting a general election for 27 October 2026. The government continues in a caretaker capacity until a new one is formed.
Why it mattersThe decisions the module's open questions wait on — Gaza phase-two sequencing, the Lebanon withdrawal terms, the PA clearance and banking arrangements — fall to the government formed after this election. Israeli positions recorded before it are a caretaker government's.
20 – 21 Jul 2026
Military Territorial change Israel–Lebanon / Blue Line
According to press reports, Israel withdraws from areas around Froun and Srifa, then Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, and the Lebanese army deploys into them. The Framework records two initial zones agreed by the two armies without naming them; no further zone is reported after July.
Why it mattersThe only observed implementation of the framework's withdrawal-for-deployment sequence so far, and therefore the module's baseline for whether that sequence moves.
30 Jul 2026 Key event
Diplomatic Military Political Gaza
The Board of Peace publishes a 15-point roadmap for completing the US plan in Gaza, developed by the guarantors (Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye and the United States) and the High Representative. It provides for an International Verification Committee of guarantor, Board and stabilisation-force representatives to certify each stage, handover of governance and internal security to the Palestinian technocratic committee, decommissioning of heavy weapons and tunnels "linked to an Israeli withdrawal, in phases", and licensing of personal weapons. Hamas approves it; Israel is not a signatory.
Why it mattersThe disarmament-versus-withdrawal sequence is the unresolved core of Gaza's second phase, and this is the latest written attempt to settle it. It is not in force as a text binding both parties: the verification committee has not been shown to be constituted, and the 14-day clock it sets runs only from approval by all parties.
10 Oct 2026 Key event
Political West Bank & Jerusalem
A decree of the PA president sets simultaneous presidential and legislative elections for 11 September 2027, repealing a July 2026 decree that had set legislative polling for 28 November 2026. The PLO Executive Committee approves the postponement the same day, citing the non-implementation of Resolution 2803, the barring of electoral officials from Gaza, settlement activity and the withholding of clearance revenue.
Why it mattersNo Palestinian national election has been held since 2006, and this decree defers the next past the end of the Board of Peace's mandate in Resolution 2803. Under a June 2026 decree-law elected legislators also become the homeland members of the Palestine National Council, so the PNC vote earlier decreed for 1 November 2026 is not treated as current; no official text has stated its fate.
No events match this filter set.
