What this actor is
Hamas is the Palestinian Islamist organisation that has controlled Gaza since 2007, led the attack on Israel of 7 October 2023, and is a party — through mediators — to every Gaza arrangement since. Under the October 2025 ceasefire it returned the last living hostages by 13 October 2025 and the last deceased hostage's remains were recovered on 26 January 2026. The question left is its weapons. The US plan endorsed by resolution 2803 excludes it from any governance role and requires demilitarisation; the Board of Peace's first report names Hamas's refusal to accept verified decommissioning as the principal obstacle; Hamas approved the Board's 30 July 2026 roadmap, which links decommissioning to a phased Israeli withdrawal and which Israel has not signed. Hamas has said it will hand administration and policing to the Palestinian technocratic committee, which in October 2026 has still not entered Gaza.
Confidence: Moderate As of 2026-10-10Reviewed 2026-10-11
Objectives
Hamas's stated terms are an end to Israeli military operations, Israeli withdrawal and the transfer of Gaza's administration to a Palestinian technocratic body, with any decommissioning conditional on Israeli compliance; its official Ghazi Hamad described its acceptance of the roadmap in those conditional terms. In January 2026 it said it was willing to hand over administration, and in July 2026 it agreed to hand over policing, according to AP.
Sources: Statements by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and allied armed organisations · Associated Press↗ · Established international media reporting
Constraints
The plan resolution 2803 endorses states that Hamas will have no role in governance and requires demilitarisation under independent monitors, and the Board's May 2026 report is quoted as saying reconstruction cannot begin where weapons have not been laid down. Israeli forces hold most of the Strip behind the Gaza Yellow Line, and neither the technocratic committee that would receive heavy weapons under the roadmap nor the stabilization force that would support verification is inside Gaza.
Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗ · Security Council Report — monthly forecasts↗
Position in the system
Hamas is the counterparty whose decommissioning every other step in Gaza waits on — the technocratic committee's entry, the force's deployment, Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction money. It negotiates through Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye, which with the United States developed the Board's roadmap as guarantors.
Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗ · US government statements and documents on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon
Objectives
What the actor says, kept apart from what Vigil assesses. Each stated entry cites where the position was made; Vigil records that it was made, not that it is true.
Stated by the actor
Acceptance of the Board of Peace roadmap of 30 July 2026, announced by the Board, with Hamas officials describing implementation as contingent on Israeli compliance.
As of 2026-07-31 Sources: Statements by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and allied armed organisations · US government statements and documents on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon · Established international media reporting
Handover of Gaza's administration (January 2026) and of policing (July 2026) to the Palestinian technocratic committee.
As of 2026-07 Sources: Statements by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and allied armed organisations · Associated Press↗
Assessed by Vigil
Trading weapons only against a guaranteed withdrawal sequence. The roadmap Hamas accepted links decommissioning to phased Israeli withdrawal and lets it begin only after the committee enters and the force deploys — conditions not yet met — so acceptance commits Hamas to little before Israel moves.
Confidence: Moderate Sources: US government statements and documents on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon · International Crisis Group↗
Retaining organisational survival through the transfer of civil functions: handing administration to a technocratic committee keeps Hamas outside governance as the plan requires without dissolving the organisation.
Confidence: Low Sources: International Crisis Group↗
Constraints
What limits this actor's options, with the kind of limit it is.
The annexed plan excludes Hamas from governance and conditions amnesty on decommissioning; resolution 2803 endorses it.
Legal Confidence: High Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗
Israeli forces control most of the Strip behind the Gaza Yellow Line, with strikes continuing during the ceasefire.
Military Confidence: Moderate Sources: UN OCHA occupied Palestinian territory — humanitarian reporting and data↗ · Reuters↗
Gaza's economy contracted by 84 per cent according to the April 2026 damage and needs assessment, and reconstruction funds are conditioned on demilitarisation.
Economic Confidence: Moderate Sources: World Bank — West Bank and Gaza and Lebanon economic monitoring and damage assessments↗ · UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗
Sources of leverage
What this actor can bring to bear, and how firmly each is established.
Its decommissioning is the condition on which the plan's later phases turn, so Hamas's consent — or refusal — sets the pace for the Board, the force and Israeli withdrawal alike.
Confidence: Moderate Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗
What remains unknown
- Hamas's current leadership and internal decision-making are not established from a primary or wire source and are not stated.
- The extent of Hamas's de facto control west of the yellow line is not established; it should not be inferred to have ceded it.
- The Sharm el-Sheikh first-phase agreement has no published text.
- Funding routes to Hamas after 2025: no primary evidence was found.
- The 2026 status of the political bureau's presence in Doha, which Israel struck on 9 September 2025, is not established.
Posture as of 2026-10-10Posture reviewed 2026-10-11
Not published for HamasRed linesObservables
Elsewhere in Levant
Last reviewed — 2026-10-11