MilitaryState controlActive
Does verified decommissioning of weapons in Gaza begin, and does the line Israeli forces hold move back or forward?
The verification committee, Israel's acceptance of the Roadmap, a first certified handover, and the line Israeli forces hold — pulled back or pushed forward.
- Opened
- Last reviewed
- Status as of
- Reviews
- 1 since 2026-10-12
- Confidence
- Moderate confidence
A Watch question is not a forecast. It names the evidence that would change an assessment and records what each review found — including the reviews that found nothing moved.
Where it stands
Standing assessment
Current assessment
Moderate confidenceAs of
No weapons are handed over or certified decommissioned, and the line has moved forward, not back.
The verification committee of the 30 July Roadmap has not been shown to be constituted, and Israel is not a signatory. Hamas says it hands weapons to the Palestinian committee in step with withdrawal; Israel says it withdraws beyond the Yellow Line only after full disarmament. Israel says it holds about 60 per cent of the Strip (AFP, 8 October 2026), against about 53 per cent on the original line; OCHA records access restrictions on 65 per cent of the land. No withdrawal has occurred since October 2025, and strikes continue.
Latest reviewBaseline
Opened by the Levant P6 monitoring pass. Baseline is no handover, no constituted verification committee, Israel not a signatory to the Roadmap, and a line that has moved forward over the ceasefire to about 60 per cent of the Strip by Israel's own account on 8 October, with targeted strikes acknowledged by the IDF on most days of the week to 11 October.
What would change the assessment4 assessment-change conditions · qualitative, as the record states them
A verification committee constituted with named members
Assessment effectgives the Roadmap the body its sequence runs through and starts the clock it sets from all-party approval.
A cabinet decision accepting the Roadmap or a successor text
Assessment effectturns a text one party approved into a sequence both have, and is the condition for every other observable here to be read as implementation.
A first certified handover or a first withdrawal from a named segment
Assessment effectis the first implementation of the plan's second or third phase and changes Hamas's armed capacity or Israel's footprint, or both.
A further documented advance
Assessment effectmoves the condition away from the plan, reduces the area the committee and any force could work in, and is recorded as movement in its own right.
Observables5 named · “met” describes evidence, not success
01Test
The International Verification Committee constituted
The Roadmap's committee of guarantor, Board and force representatives announced with named members — the body that certifies every stage.
02Test
Israel formally accepts the Roadmap or a successor text
A cabinet decision or a signed document accepting the 30 July Roadmap, or a successor sequence agreed by both parties.
03Test
A first handover of weapons certified
Heavy weapons placed in committee storage, or a tunnel decommissioned under the Roadmap, and certified — as distinct from IDF demolitions in the area Israel holds.
04Test
Israeli forces withdraw from a named segment of the line
A pullback announced by Israel or recorded by the UN or the Board, or a reduced share of the Strip held stated by Israel.
05Test
The line moves further into the Strip
An advance beyond the share Israel stated on 8 October 2026, announced by Israel or recorded by the UN on its access maps.
Review ledger1 entry · opened · newest first, each tied to the review that made it
Baseline
Opened by the Levant P6 monitoring pass. Baseline is no handover, no constituted verification committee, Israel not a signatory to the Roadmap, and a line that has moved forward over the ceasefire to about 60 per cent of the Strip by Israel's own account on 8 October, with targeted strikes acknowledged by the IDF on most days of the week to 11 October.
Connected system29 canonical records this question runs through · Watch owns the edge; each record shows the question back
Parties and forces 11
Actors
- IsraelState party · military presence on three fronts
- HamasPolitical-armed organisation · party to the Gaza ceasefire
- PIJArmed organisation · Gaza and the northern West Bank
- Board of PeaceTransitional administration for Gaza under resolution 2803
- United StatesExternal power · mediator, guarantor and Israel's principal ally
- EgyptInterface state · Rafah, mediation and gas
- QatarExternal power · mediator and guarantor for Gaza
Means and systems 1
Ground 4
Terrain
Arrangements and events 7
Relationships
Vigil analysis 6
Watch questions
- Do the bodies of Gaza's transition — the Palestinian administrative committee, the stabilisation force, a vetted police — begin operating inside the Strip?Political
- Does the regime governing what enters Gaza — the crossings, the dual-use rules, who may deliver — open, hold or tighten?Humanitarian
- Is Iranian support reaching Hezbollah and the Palestinian armed groups in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and is it intercepted on the Lebanese side?Military
Open this question in Explore Interactive: select this record and follow what connects to it.
Assessed as of — 2026-10-12 Last reviewed — 2026-10-12