Ukraine–Russia
Interstate warPublic alphaAn interstate war reshaping European security.
24Key events on the timeline
Conflict Context Platform
News tells you what happened. Vigil explains why.
Maps, timelines, actors, forces and sources — connected into structured, non-operational context for every conflict Vigil covers.
- PUBLIC ALPHA
- VERIFIED BRIEFS
- SOURCES & CONFIDENCE SHOWN
- CONTEXT, NOT TARGETING
Latest verified brief
Caucasus baseline — 18 July 2026
The module's baseline picture at launch: Pashinyan's party wins Armenia's June election but falls short of the supermajority the constitutional question needs; the TRIPP corridor moves from summit language to survey teams; Russia merges South Ossetia's administration into its own by treaty and installs a Moscow-career successor; Georgia's protest crisis grinds through its second year with EU accession still frozen; and Kadyrov's failing health makes Chechen succession the North Caucasus's live question.
- Pashinyan wins Armenia's election — without the majority the constitution question needshigh
- TRIPP moves from summit language to survey teamsmoderate
- Russia merges South Ossetia by treaty — and installs a Moscow-career successorhigh
Current coverage
Ukraine–Russia is reviewed weekly. Mali, the Caucasus and Syria are reviewed monthly and updated when major developments are verified. Baseline reference pages are under progressive source review — which is why the latest brief can come from any module.
Vigil currently covers 4 published conflict modules: Ukraine–Russia in Eastern Europe; Mali in Sahel / West Africa; Caucasus in South Caucasus / North Caucasus; Syria in Levant / Eastern Mediterranean. Full details in the coverage cards below.
Coverage orientation only — markers are approximate regional anchors for published modules, not conflict extents or current activity.
Mali: War in the Sahel
Conflict systemPublic alphaA fragmented conflict system with no single front.
25Key events on the timeline
The Caucasus: Unresolved Wars and Regional Power
Regional systemPublic alphaUnresolved wars inside a changing regional system.
39Key events on the timeline
Syria: Transition, Kurdish Autonomy and Regional Power
Regional transitionPublic alphaA civil-war legacy shaping a regional transition.
41Key events on the timeline
How Vigil works
Developments
What changed and why it matters — verified briefs with sources and confidence.
Theatre Map
Where events and strategic systems sit on the ground.
Strategic Profiles
Who the principal actors are, and how they align.
Force Atlas
How forces, formations and equipment connect.
Economy
How the war transmits through trade, energy, industry and sanctions.
Each module opens with its own guided reading order. Unsure how to read our confidence grades, dates and sourcing? Start with the methodology.
Built for clarity, not speed
Vigil does not try to win the breaking-news race. It prioritises verified, dated, cross-linked information; explicit uncertainty; transparent corrections; and broad, non-operational context. When reliable information is not available, Vigil says so.