The actor as a whole — political system, leadership, military capacity, alliances, strengths and vulnerabilities. The Force Atlas covers the units and equipment inside each actor.
Figures carry their own uncertainty. Population, economic and military-spending data in wartime are estimates, often contested. Every figure shows its as-of date and a confidence grade; leadership positions reflect the last review date and change without notice.
State actor
Ukraine
A unitary semi-presidential republic fighting a war of national survival under martial law, with an economy kept solvent by external financing and a defence sector reinventing itself around drones.
Kyiv-alignedPrimary Belligerent
≈ 32–36 M
Population (in-country)
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF LOW · pre-2022: ~41 M; wartime displacement makes counts contested
≈ $190 B
GDP, nominal
EST · AS OF 2024 · CONF MODERATE
≈ $5,000–5,800
GDP per capita
EST · AS OF 2024 · CONF MODERATE
≈ $55–65 B
Defence spending
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF MODERATE · own budget; excludes foreign military aid
Government & leadership — reviewed 2025-12
SystemSemi-presidential republic — martial law; elections suspended for the duration
President / C-in-CVolodymyr Zelensky
Prime MinisterYulia Svyrydenko
Defence MinisterDenys Shmyhal
Foreign MinisterAndrii Sybiha
Military commanderCol.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces
Military capacity
Manpower systemMobilization of men from age 25 plus volunteer contracts; recruitment and rotation are chronic constraints
Defence industryRapidly scaled domestic production — FPV and long-range strike drones, naval drones, Bohdana howitzers; joint ventures with Western firms
External supplyDependent on Western air defence, long-range munitions and financing; the decisive external variable
Alliances & partners
No formal defence treaty. Backed by a US-anchored coalition (policy-volatile), the EU as budget lifeline, and bilateral security agreements with most NATO members. EU accession candidate; NATO membership deferred.
Strengths
Societal mobilization and motivation; battle-hardened force; world-leading drone warfare adaptation; growing indigenous arms industry; Western technology access.
Strategic vulnerabilities
Manpower ceiling against a larger enemy; energy grid under repeated strike campaigns; fiscal dependence on external financing; demographic loss compounding with each year of war; exposure to shifts in US politics.
An authoritarian presidential state running a war economy, betting that mass, stockpile depth and political insulation from casualties will outlast Ukraine's manpower and the West's attention span.
Moscow-alignedPrimary Belligerent
≈ 146 M
Population
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF MODERATE · official figure; includes annexed Crimea
≈ $2.0–2.2 T
GDP, nominal
EST · AS OF 2024 · CONF MODERATE
≈ $14,000
GDP per capita
EST · AS OF 2024 · CONF MODERATE
≈ $145–165 B
Defence spending
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF LOW · official budget; real total obscured by classified lines
Government & leadership — reviewed 2025-12
SystemAuthoritarian presidential system; United Russia dominant; wartime censorship
President / C-in-CVladimir Putin
Prime MinisterMikhail Mishustin
Defence MinisterAndrei Belousov
Foreign MinisterSergei Lavrov
Military commanderGen. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff
Military capacity
Manpower systemHigh-bonus contract recruitment; conscripts largely kept out of Ukraine; a second formal mobilization avoided as politically costly
External supplyNorth Korean shells, missiles and troops; Iranian drone designs; Chinese dual-use components and machine tools
Alliances & partners
No fighting allies in the Western sense. Deepening munitions-for-technology exchange with North Korea, defence cooperation with Iran, an economic lifeline through China, basing and logistics through Belarus. CSTO exists mostly on paper.
Strengths
Mass and stockpile depth; strategic depth and dispersed industry; nuclear arsenal deters direct intervention; leadership insulated from casualty pressure; war-economy momentum.
Strategic vulnerabilities
Acute labour shortage and inflation; refineries and export terminals exposed to Ukrainian deep strikes; dependence on imported high-end components; hydrocarbon revenue hostage to prices and sanctions enforcement; long-term demographic decline.
The reorganised remnant of the Wagner Group after its 2023 mutiny and the death of its founder — formally folded under Ministry of Defence control, functioning as Russia's deniable expeditionary arm, primarily in Africa.
Moscow-alignedPMC lineage · expeditionary
low tens of thousands
Estimated manpower
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF LOW · across all theatres; no reliable public count
Sahel · Libya · CAR
Area of influence
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF MODERATE · Ukraine role marginal since 2023
state contracts + resource concessions
Funding basis
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF MODERATE
Russian state (MoD/GRU)
External patron
EST · AS OF 2025 · CONF HIGH
Ideology & purpose
No coherent ideology; nominal Russian nationalism over a commercial-expeditionary core. Sells regime security to embattled governments in exchange for mining concessions and geopolitical alignment with Moscow.
Command structure — reviewed 2025-12
StatusPost-2023 structures subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defence; "Africa Corps" branding for state-run successor operations
LineageWagner Group (2014–2023) → reorganised successor networks; the atlas tracks predecessor→successor, not a single fixed name
WingsNo political wing; influence operations and media networks act as the non-military arm
Governance capacity
None of its own. Provides security services, presidential guard functions and counterinsurgency muscle to host regimes; governance outcomes in host states are typically extractive and repressive.
International status
Widely sanctioned (US, EU, UK); designated a transnational criminal organisation by the US. Operates through opaque corporate shells, which is precisely why estimates carry low confidence.
Strategic vulnerabilities
Legitimacy and command tensions inherited from the mutiny; dependence on Russian state logistics; exposure to local insurgent reversals; recruitment competition with the regular army's contract bonuses.