Kyiv-aligned
Ukraine
Primary Belligerent
A unitary semi-presidential republic fighting a war of national survival under martial law, with an economy kept solvent by external financing and a defence sector reinventing itself around drones.
Conflict coverage · Eastern Europe
Figures carry their own uncertainty. Population, economic and military-spending data in wartime are estimates, often contested; every figure on an actor record shows its own as-of date and confidence grade.
The actors11 actors, in the module's own order. Each opens a full profile: political system, leadership, forces, economy, stated and assessed objectives, constraints and red lines — every figure with its own as-of date, sources and confidence grade.Interrogate these actors in Explore
Moscow-aligned
Russia
Russian Federation
Primary Belligerent
An authoritarian presidential state running a war economy, betting that mass, stockpile depth and political insulation from casualties will outlast Ukraine's manpower and the West's attention span.
Kyiv-aligned
United States and the war in Ukraine
United States of America
External backer · principal arms and intelligence supplier
The single largest source of advanced weapons, intelligence and sanctions pressure since 2022, and the supplier whose domestic politics move the front line more reliably than most battles do. The six-month appropriations interruption of 2023–24 demonstrated the dependency in both directions: Ukraine rationed air defence and artillery within weeks, and every subsequent European decision has been taken with that precedent in view.
Kyiv-aligned
European Union and the war in Ukraine
External backer · budget financier, sanctions author, refugee host
The actor that keeps the Ukrainian state solvent rather than the one that arms it hardest: multi-year budget financing, successive sanctions packages requiring unanimity among twenty-seven governments, temporary protection for millions of refugees, and an accession process that is now the principal long-term political offer on the table. Its constraint is structural — every major decision needs a unanimity that one government can withhold.
Kyiv-aligned
NATO and the war in Ukraine
External backer · non-belligerent alliance, coordination and deterrence
The alliance that is not fighting this war but is central to it three times over: Ukraine's membership is one of Russia's declared casus belli and one of the hardest items in any negotiation; the alliance enlarged during the war with Finland and Sweden, the opposite of the stated Russian objective; and its eastern posture and coordination structures now organise the supply effort without the alliance itself being a supplier.
Kyiv-aligned
Poland and the war in Ukraine
Republic of Poland
External backer · principal transit state and rearming frontline member
The country most Western supply physically passes through on its way to Ukraine, the largest early refugee host, and the NATO member rearming fastest relative to its size. Its role is geographic before it is political: the land bridge from the alliance's industry to Ukraine's front runs through Polish rail, road and border crossings, which makes Polish domestic politics a logistics variable as well as a diplomatic one.
Hedging
China and the war in Ukraine
People's Republic of China
Strategic hedger · economic enabler, non-belligerent
The state that made the sanctions architecture survivable for Russia without joining the war: the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude, the principal supplier of the dual-use components and machine tools that keep Russian defence production running, and a declared non-supplier of lethal aid. It also treats the Western response as a rehearsal it is studying — the Taiwan connection is stated by Beijing's critics and implied by its own analysts.
Moscow-aligned
North Korea and the war in Ukraine
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Moscow-aligned · munitions supplier and troop contributor
The supplier that changed the artillery arithmetic of this war and then went further than any other third state by committing organised ground troops from October 2024. What Pyongyang takes in return — hard currency, food, and technology it could not otherwise obtain — is the part with consequences outside Europe, and the part least visible in public reporting.
Moscow-aligned
Iran and the war in Ukraine
Islamic Republic of Iran
Moscow-aligned · design and technology supplier
The supplier whose contribution outlived the transfer: Iranian one-way attack drones supplied from 2022 became a Russian production line, and the strike campaign against Ukraine's cities and grid is now sustained by domestic manufacture at volumes the original transfers never approached. What Tehran obtained in exchange — cash, and assessed access to Russian aviation and air defence — matters to a different theatre than this one.
Moscow-aligned
Belarus and the war in Ukraine
Republic of Belarus
Moscow-aligned · territory and basing provider, non-combatant
The state whose territory carried the northern axis of the February 2022 invasion and whose airspace and training areas remain available to Russian forces — without, so far, committing its own army to the war. That combination is the record: participation that is territorial rather than military, sustained by a leadership whose survival has depended on Moscow since the disputed 2020 election and the protests that followed.
Moscow-aligned
Wagner successor / Africa Corps
PMC lineage · expeditionary
The reorganised remnant of the Wagner Group after its 2023 mutiny and the death of its founder — formally folded under Ministry of Defence control, functioning as Russia's deniable expeditionary arm, primarily in Africa.
Evidence and grading
- Alignment
- A grouping the module authored, with its own stated meaning. It is not a Vigil verdict about who is on whose side, and no two modules use the same alignment vocabulary.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.