Phase I
Partition, war and the armistice system
The UN's 1947 partition recommendation was overtaken by war.
Coverage · Levant
The phases 9 dated periods in Levant, in order. Each opens its own section below: what happened, what the period covers, the analytical takeaway, and the key events it produced — every one of them dated and sourced individually on the timeline.
Phase II
1967 and the territorial-legal frame
In June 1967 Israel took the West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, together with Sinai and the Golan Heights.
Phase III
The Lebanon front, peace with Egypt and the first uprising
Israel's 1978 Litani operation brought Resolution 425 and UNIFIL.
Phase IV
The Oslo interim architecture
Mutual recognition and the 1993 Declaration of Principles opened a five-year interim period.
Phase V
Collapse and separation
The second intifada ended the negotiating track of the 1990s.
Phase VI
Divided governance and closure
Hamas took control of Gaza in June 2007 and the PA governed in parts of the West Bank; no reconciliation reunified them.
Phase VII
The October 2023 war and its fronts
The Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 opened a war in Gaza that displaced most of its population and destroyed most of its housing and infrastructure.
Phase VIII
Ceasefires and new administrations
The January 2025 Gaza ceasefire collapsed in March.
Phase IX
The 2026 war and the re-founded Lebanon front
The war with Iran, which is Vigil's Iran–Gulf record, reached the Levant at once: Gaza's crossings and Israel's offshore gas were shut, and Hezbollah entered the war on 2 March, the day Lebanon's government banned its military activity.
Phase IPartition, war and the armistice system1947 – 1966
What happened
The UN's 1947 partition recommendation was overtaken by war. Israel declared independence in May 1948; no Palestinian state was formed; several hundred thousand Palestinian Arabs were displaced. The armistice agreements of 1949 with Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria drew lines expressly without prejudice to a final settlement. Gaza passed to Egyptian administration and the West Bank and East Jerusalem to Jordanian rule, and the General Assembly created UNRWA to serve the refugees across the region.
The period covers
- UNGA Resolution 181 recommends partition, November 1947
- Israel's independence and the 1948 war
- Armistice agreements, February – July 1949; the Green Line
- UNRWA established, December 1949
- Gaza under Egyptian administration; the West Bank under Jordanian rule
Key analytical point
The lines that still define the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and the Israel–Lebanon frontier are armistice lines, not agreed borders, and the refugee question and the agency created for it have outlived every arrangement since.
Key events in this phase
Phase II1967 and the territorial-legal frame1967 – 1977
What happened
In June 1967 Israel took the West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, together with Sinai and the Golan Heights. Resolution 242 set the land-for-peace formula every later treaty refers to, reaffirmed by Resolution 338 after the 1973 war. Israeli settlement in the territories began, and East Jerusalem was placed under Israeli law. The PLO, under Palestinian leadership from 1969, was expelled from Jordan and made southern Lebanon its base under the 1969 Cairo Agreement; the Lebanese civil war began in 1975.
The period covers
- The June 1967 war and the start of Israeli control of the Palestinian territories
- Resolution 242 (1967) and Resolution 338 (1973)
- Israeli law applied to an enlarged East Jerusalem, June 1967
- The Cairo Agreement (1969) and the PLO's move to Lebanon after 1970–71
- The Lebanese civil war from 1975
Key analytical point
Every Palestinian territory in the module has been under Israeli control in some form since 1967, and every instrument since has been argued in 242's terms; the same decade made southern Lebanon an armed front the Lebanese state did not control.
Key events in this phase
Phase IIIThe Lebanon front, peace with Egypt and the first uprising1978 – 1992
What happened
Israel's 1978 Litani operation brought Resolution 425 and UNIFIL. Egypt made peace in 1979 and recovered Sinai under a security annex, leaving Gaza outside the settlement. Israel's 1980 Jerusalem law was declared null and void by the Security Council. The 1982 invasion of Lebanon removed the PLO to Tunis, while Hezbollah emerged with Iranian support and fought the Israeli security zone held from 1985. The first intifada from December 1987 moved Palestinian politics into the territories, produced Hamas outside the PLO and, with Jordan's 1988 disengagement from the West Bank, left the PLO the Palestinian interlocutor. The 1989 Taif Agreement ended Lebanon's civil war and provided for militia disarmament, which Hezbollah's arms escaped.
The period covers
- Litani operation and Resolutions 425/426; UNIFIL created, March 1978
- Egypt–Israel peace treaty, March 1979
- Basic Law on Jerusalem and Resolution 478, 1980
- The 1982 Lebanon war and the PLO's evacuation from Beirut
- Hezbollah's emergence and the Israeli security zone, 1982–2000
- The first intifada and Hamas's founding, December 1987
- Jordan's disengagement from the West Bank, July 1988
- The Taif Agreement, 1989
Key analytical point
The phase produced three of the system's standing parts: UNIFIL south of the Litani, the Egyptian and Jordanian interface through peace with Egypt and the PLO's sole standing, and the two armed organisations — Hezbollah and Hamas — that sit outside the state and PLO structures.
Key events in this phase
Israel's Litani operation, and Resolution 425 creates UNIFIL · 14 – 19 Mar 1978The Egypt–Israel peace treaty · 26 Mar 1979Israel's Basic Law declares Jerusalem its capital; Resolution 478 rejects it · 30 Jul 1980Israel invades Lebanon and the PLO leaves Beirut · 6 Jun 1982 (PLO evacuation Aug – Sep 1982)Hezbollah emerges, and Israel withdraws to a security zone in southern Lebanon · 1982 – 1985The first intifada begins, and Hamas is founded · Dec 1987 – 1993
Phase IVThe Oslo interim architecture1993 – 2000
What happened
Mutual recognition and the 1993 Declaration of Principles opened a five-year interim period. The 1994 Gaza–Jericho Agreement created the Palestinian Authority and, through the Paris Protocol, made Israel the collector of Palestinian customs and VAT. Jordan made peace in 1994. Oslo II in 1995 divided the West Bank into Areas A, B and C and set up security coordination; the permanent-status issues were deferred and never settled. In May 2000 Israel left southern Lebanon to a UN-identified line of withdrawal, the Blue Line, and the Camp David summit failed in July.
The period covers
- Letters of mutual recognition and the Declaration of Principles, September 1993
- Gaza–Jericho Agreement and the Paris Protocol; the PA created, 1994
- Israel–Jordan peace treaty, October 1994
- Oslo II and the A/B/C division, September 1995
- Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the Blue Line, May – June 2000
- Camp David permanent-status summit fails, July 2000
Key analytical point
The interim structures outlived their own timetable and still operate: Area C as the zone of full Israeli control, clearance revenue as the PA's fiscal lifeline and Israel's lever, and the Blue Line as a withdrawal line every Lebanon negotiation still has to treat as one.
Key events in this phase
Mutual recognition and the Oslo Declaration of Principles · 9 – 13 Sep 1993The Palestinian Authority is created, with the Paris Protocol's clearance-revenue system · 29 Apr – 4 May 1994The Israel–Jordan peace treaty · 26 Oct 1994Oslo II divides the West Bank into Areas A, B and C · 28 Sep 1995Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon to the Blue Line · 24 May 2000 (line confirmed Jun 2000)
Phase VCollapse and separation2000 – 2006
What happened
The second intifada ended the negotiating track of the 1990s. Israeli forces re-entered the Area A cities in 2002 and have operated there since; Israel began a barrier whose route runs largely inside the West Bank, which the ICJ found unlawful in 2004. Resolution 1559 made the disarmament of all Lebanese militias a Council demand. Israel withdrew its settlements and forces from Gaza in 2005 while keeping its borders, sea and airspace, and Rafah reopened under an EU mission. Hamas won the 2006 legislative election, and the 2006 Lebanon war ended with Resolution 1701.
The period covers
- Second intifada from September 2000; Operation Defensive Shield, 2002
- The West Bank barrier from 2002; ICJ advisory opinion, July 2004
- Resolution 1559, September 2004
- Gaza disengagement and the Agreement on Movement and Access, 2005
- Hamas wins the Palestinian legislative election, January 2006
- The 2006 Lebanon war and Resolution 1701
Key analytical point
Separation replaced negotiation as the organising logic — barrier, permits, disengagement — and Resolution 1701 became the frame of the Lebanon front, a frame that still applies after UNIFIL ends.
Key events in this phase
The second intifada, and Israel's return to the Palestinian cities · Sep 2000 – 2005Israel begins the West Bank barrier; the ICJ finds its West Bank route unlawful · Jun 2002 (ICJ opinion 9 Jul 2004)Resolution 1559 calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon · 2 Sep 2004Israel withdraws its settlements and forces from the Gaza Strip · 15 Aug – 12 Sep 2005 (AMA 15 Nov 2005)Hamas wins the Palestinian Legislative Council election · 25 Jan 2006Resolution 1701 ends the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah war · 12 Jul – 14 Aug 2006 (adopted 11 Aug)
Phase VIDivided governance and closure2007 – Sep 2023
What happened
Hamas took control of Gaza in June 2007 and the PA governed in parts of the West Bank; no reconciliation reunified them. Israel declared Gaza "hostile territory" and, with Egypt's control of Rafah, a closure regime became the standing condition of the Strip, broken by rounds of war in 2008–09, 2012, 2014 and 2021. Settlement expanded in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; Resolution 2334 in 2016 restated their illegality under international law, which Israel rejects, and the United States recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017. In 2018 Israel legislated the first statutory deduction from clearance revenue. In 2022 Israel and Lebanon settled their maritime boundary through US mediation.
The period covers
- Hamas takes control of Gaza, June 2007
- Gaza declared "hostile territory"; the closure regime, September 2007
- Gaza rounds of 2008–09, 2012, 2014 and 2021
- Resolution 2334 on settlements, December 2016
- US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, December 2017
- Statutory deduction from PA clearance revenue, July 2018
- Israel–Lebanon maritime boundary arrangement, October 2022
Key analytical point
Two Palestinian authorities in two territories, a crossing-based access regime for Gaza and a fiscal channel Israel could withhold by law are the structures the October 2023 war broke into and every plan since has had to address.
Phase VIIThe October 2023 war and its frontsOct 2023 – Nov 2024
What happened
The Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 opened a war in Gaza that displaced most of its population and destroyed most of its housing and infrastructure. Hezbollah opened a front from Lebanon the next day. Israel took the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor in May 2024. The ICJ advised in July 2024 that Israel's presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful, and the Knesset legislated against UNRWA in October. Israel's autumn 2024 campaign in Lebanon killed Hassan Nasrallah and ended with the November 2024 cessation of hostilities and its US-chaired Mechanism.
The period covers
- The Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 and Israel's war in Gaza
- The Lebanon front from 8 October 2023
- Rafah crossing and Philadelphi corridor taken, May 2024
- ICJ advisory opinion, July 2024; UNGA ES-10/24, September 2024
- Northern Arrows and the killing of Nasrallah, September 2024
- Knesset laws against UNRWA, October 2024
- Israel–Lebanon cessation of hostilities, 27 November 2024
Key analytical point
The war replaced the post-2007 Gaza arrangement with one still being built, put Israel on Gaza's Egyptian border, and gave the Lebanon front a new instrument — state monopoly of arms, phased withdrawal, a US chair — whose terms carried into 2026.
Key events in this phase
The Hamas-led attack on Israel · 7 Oct 2023Hezbollah opens a front from Lebanon · 8 Oct 2023 – Sep 2024Israel begins ground operations in the Gaza Strip · 27 Oct 2023 onwardIsrael takes the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor · May 2024The ICJ advises that Israel's continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful · 19 Jul 2024 (UNGA ES-10/24, 18 Sep 2024)Israel's Northern Arrows campaign and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah · 23 Sep – Nov 2024The Knesset passes two laws against UNRWA · 28 Oct 2024 (in force Jan 2025)The Israel–Lebanon cessation of hostilities and its Mechanism · 26 – 27 Nov 2024
Confidence: High Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗ · International Court of Justice — proceedings concerning Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory↗ · Treaty and agreement texts — Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and neighbours↗ · Reuters↗
Phase VIIICeasefires and new administrationsJan 2025 – Feb 2026
What happened
The January 2025 Gaza ceasefire collapsed in March. In the West Bank, Operation Iron Wall emptied the northern camps, Israel suspended clearance-revenue transfers from May 2025, and Area C land registration was restarted in law. In Lebanon, Israel kept five positions after its February 2025 withdrawal, a new government committed the state to a monopoly of arms, and Resolution 2790 set UNIFIL's end for 31 December 2026. The October 2025 ceasefire under the US 20-point plan held with continuing strikes; Resolution 2803 endorsed a Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force, whose offices were named in January 2026. Rafah reopened for people under the EU mission in February 2026.
The period covers
- January 2025 Gaza ceasefire and its collapse on 18 March 2025
- Operation Iron Wall in the northern West Bank camps, from January 2025
- Israel keeps five positions in southern Lebanon, February 2025
- Clearance-revenue transfers suspended, May 2025
- Lebanese cabinet arms-monopoly decisions, August – September 2025; phase one declared complete, January 2026
- IPC famine finding for Gaza Governorate, August 2025
- Resolution 2790 ends UNIFIL operations on 31 December 2026
- E1 final approval reported, August 2025; recognitions of Palestine by several Western states, September 2025
- October 2025 ceasefire and the Gaza Yellow Line
- Resolution 2803; Board of Peace offices named, January 2026
- Rafah reopened for people with EUBAM, February 2026
- Area C land registration approved, February 2026
Key analytical point
The arrangements now in force were set in this year — an interim Gaza administration outside the PA and the UN, a Lebanese state commitment to disarm Hezbollah, a fixed end to UNIFIL — and each was authorised before the bodies meant to implement it existed on the ground.
Key events in this phase
The January 2025 Gaza ceasefire, and its collapse in March · 19 Jan – 18 Mar 2025Operation Iron Wall empties the northern West Bank refugee camps · 21 Jan 2025 onwardIsrael withdraws from southern Lebanon but keeps five positions · 18 Feb 2025Israel suspends clearance-revenue transfers to the Palestinian Authority · May 2025Lebanon's cabinet tasks the army with confining arms to the state · 5 Aug – 5 Sep 2025The IPC confirms famine in Gaza Governorate · 22 Aug 2025Resolution 2790 extends UNIFIL for a final time · 28 Aug 2025The October 2025 Gaza ceasefire under the US 20-point plan · 29 Sep – 13 Oct 2025Resolution 2803 endorses the Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force · 17 Nov 2025The Board of Peace's bodies are named and phase two is declared · 16 Jan 2026Rafah reopens for people with the EU border mission · 2 Feb 2026Israel restarts land registration in Area C · 15 Feb 2026 (precursor 11 May 2025)
Confidence: Moderate Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗ · World Bank — West Bank and Gaza and Lebanon economic monitoring and damage assessments↗ · US government statements and documents on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon · Lebanese government statements and decisions (Presidency, Council of Ministers, ministries)↗ · IPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip↗ · Reuters↗
Phase IXThe 2026 war and the re-founded Lebanon frontFeb 2026 – present
What happened
The war with Iran, which is Vigil's Iran–Gulf record, reached the Levant at once: Gaza's crossings and Israel's offshore gas were shut, and Hezbollah entered the war on 2 March, the day Lebanon's government banned its military activity. Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon and declared a forward line. A US-brokered cessation from 16 April led to direct Israel–Lebanon talks and the Trilateral Framework of 26 June, with its first pilot zones in July. In Gaza the Yellow Line moved, the Board of Peace published a disarmament roadmap Israel did not sign, and phase two stalled. The Knesset put clearance deductions into statute and dissolved for an election on 27 October 2026; the PA postponed its elections to September 2027.
The period covers
- Gaza crossings and offshore gas shut at the opening of the Iran war; Kerem Shalom the only cargo crossing from 24 May
- Hezbollah enters the war and Lebanon bans its military activity, 2 March 2026
- Lebanese parliament extends its term to May 2028
- Israeli ground operations and the "forward defence line" (Israel's "Yellow Line"); the 2024 Mechanism suspends its meetings, 18 March
- Ten-day cessation from 16 April, extended; conditional ceasefire 3 June; Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire in effect 19 June (UN)
- Israeli directive to extend Gaza control to 70 per cent, May 2026
- UN Secretary-General's options for after UNIFIL, 1 June 2026
- Knesset deduction law, June 2026; Knesset dissolved, July 2026
- Trilateral Framework and the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon, June 2026
- Board of Peace roadmap, July 2026; Israeli cabinet approves limited stabilisation-force entry
- Palestinian elections postponed to 11 September 2027
Key analytical point
The Israel–Lebanon front was re-founded on a bilateral, US-facilitated instrument that rests on no Security Council text and sequences withdrawal after verified disarmament, while Gaza and the West Bank wait on decisions — phase two, the Israeli election, the end of UNIFIL and of the banking arrangement — that fall due after this record's date.
Key events in this phase
The Iran war closes Gaza's crossings and shuts Israel's offshore gas · 28 Feb – Apr 2026Hezbollah enters the 2026 war, and Israel strikes across Lebanon · 2 Mar 2026Lebanon's government bans Hezbollah's military activity · 2 Mar 2026Israel begins ground operations in southern Lebanon · ~16 Mar 2026 onwardA US-brokered Israel–Lebanon cessation of hostilities, and direct talks · 16 Apr 2026 (extended 23 Apr, 15 May)Israel declares a forward defence line in southern Lebanon · Apr 2026 (IDF map 19 Apr)The Knesset puts deductions from Palestinian clearance revenue into statute · 8 Jun 2026An Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect, with Israeli forces still in southern Lebanon · 19 Jun 2026 (US–Iran memorandum announced 14 Jun)The US–Israel–Lebanon Trilateral Framework is signed in Washington · 26 Jun 2026The Knesset dissolves, with an election set for 27 October 2026 · 17 Jul 2026The Lebanese army deploys into the first pilot zones after Israeli withdrawal · 20 – 21 Jul 2026The Board of Peace publishes a disarmament roadmap for Gaza · 30 Jul 2026Palestinian presidential and legislative elections are postponed to September 2027 · 10 Oct 2026
Confidence: Moderate Sources: UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗ · Security Council Report — monthly forecasts↗ · US government statements and documents on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon · Lebanese government statements and decisions (Presidency, Council of Ministers, ministries)↗ · WAFA — Palestinian News and Info Agency↗ · Knesset — legislation and committee records↗ · Established international media reporting
Evidence and grading
- Phase
- An editorial period, not a schema state. A phase is Vigil’s own division of the background into dated stretches; the events inside it are dated and sourced individually on the timeline.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.