Observed operations
The 2026 Lebanon war
Hezbollah joined the Iran war on its third day; Israel answered with a country-wide air campaign and a ground operation that left it holding a forward defence line after the ceasefire.
Coverage · Levant
Context, not targeting. Campaign records describe objectives, participants, phases and outcomes at the level of published analysis; they contain no current positions, force ratios, unit locations or strengths.
Campaigns 5 sustained efforts in Levant, each grouping the events that belong to it. Status describes where a campaign stands, never who is winning.
Observed operations
The northern West Bank camps campaign
Repeated large-scale raids, then an open-ended operation that emptied the Jenin, Tulkarm and Nur Shams camps and has not let their people return.
Observed operations
Israel's Gaza war
A war that began with the 7 October attack, has run under a ceasefire since October 2025, and has not ended: Israel holds more than half the Strip and strikes continue.
Observed operations
The Lebanon front, 2023–2024
Eleven months of cross-border fire tied to Gaza, then ten weeks of Israeli escalation that broke Hezbollah's leadership and ended in a cessation Hezbollah did not sign.
Declared plans
Lebanon's declared state monopoly of arms
What the Lebanese state has decided about Hezbollah's arms since August 2025 — and how little of it the public record lets anyone verify.
Evidence and grading
- Observed operation
- Documented as having occurred or as occurring, with sources. Its lifecycle status says where it stands.
- Declared plan — not an observed operation
- A concept a party has publicly declared or published. Vigil records that the declaration exists and who made it. It is NOT a statement that anything is being executed, prepared or intended on any timescale.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.