Standing assessment
Current condition
Moderate confidenceAs of
A market closed rather than a waterway: protection-and-indemnity clubs issued 72-hour notices terminating war-risk extensions in March 2026 and commercial transits fell by more than 80 per cent while the strait remained physically passable.
The IMO's April position that there is no safe transit anywhere in the strait stands. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority, announced in May, is rejected by all six Gulf states, and an Oman–Iran working group on the future management of navigation was agreed in August. No cover is being written on terms charterers accept.
Latest reviewBaseline
Opened on the module baseline. Iran–Gulf joined coverage after the war opened and has no weekly review trail before its first Sunday brief; the ledger starts here and nothing earlier is inferred.
Brief itemThe strait is commercially unusable and has never been physically closed
Why it matters
Physical, commercial and legal access have moved independently through this war, which is why they are tracked apart. The change that counts is cover available on terms charterers actually take up — not an announcement that cover exists and not a single voyage — because it is the insurance market, not the navy, that closed the strait, and the same market decides when it reopens. Every export and bypass chain in the module, and the Gulf states' fiscal positions, run through this one condition.
Observables6 named · “met” describes evidence, not success
01Test
War-risk cover written for Hormuz transits at rates charterers accept
Dated quotes from underwriting or broking sources, and the Joint War Committee's listed-area treatment of the Gulf. Announced availability is not the observable; cover taken up is.
02Test
Commercial transit counts against the pre-war rate
Independent tracking of laden transits, read weekly against the March 2026 collapse and the pre-war baseline.
03Test
A revised IMO navigational assessment
The April 2026 position is that there is no safe transit anywhere in the strait. The observable is a revised official assessment or an independently corroborated statement that a hazard has been surveyed or cleared. No hazard location, lane or clearance detail is published here.
04Test
A navigational régime accepted by more than one riparian
The Strait Authority's standing, the Oman–Iran working group's output, or a determination by an international body. Legal access is tracked apart from physical and commercial access on purpose.
05Test
Bypass utilisation and the shut-in series
Throughput on the Petroline and Habshan–Fujairah bypasses and the producers' shut-in figures, which show how much of the closed market has been rerouted rather than lost.
What would change the assessment3 thresholds · the boundaries as the record states them, none with a number
Cover written at pre-war terms for two consecutive months with transit counts to match
Would meanresolves the question as posed and opens a successor about the insurance baseline.
A change in the Combined Maritime Forces' mandate or a riparian régime accepted by more than one state
Would meanchanges the legal access before the commercial one.
A physical incident that the IMO records as closing a lane
Would meanis the one development that has not happened in this war.
What remains unknown
- The pre-war war-risk denominator is not established, so no multiple, percentage increase or ratio is published anywhere in the module.
- Transit counts differ between trackers by definition of "laden" and "transit".
Readings the evidence also supports
- Access returns through a bilateral Oman–Iran arrangement that the other riparians tolerate without accepting, in which case the legal observable never fires and the commercial one does.
Listed because the record's own assessment is not the only one its sources permit — not as a hedge on the assessment above.
Review ledger1 entry · opened · newest first, each tied to the review that made it
Baseline
Opened on the module baseline. Iran–Gulf joined coverage after the war opened and has no weekly review trail before its first Sunday brief; the ledger starts here and nothing earlier is inferred.
Brief item The strait is commercially unusable and has never been physically closedReviewed in 2026-09-04
Connected system34 canonical records this question runs through · Watch owns the edge; each record shows the question back
Parties and forces 10
Actors
- IranRegional power · belligerent in the current war
- OmanMediation channel of record · exports outside the strait
- United StatesBelligerent · security guarantor · basing partner
- Saudi ArabiaLargest regional producer · de-escalation pole
- UAEMost-struck Gulf state · second Hormuz alternative
- GCCRegional institution · collective defence commitment
Means and systems 11
Equipment
Logistics
Campaigns
Ground 4
Arrangements and events 7
Events
- Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed to normal commercial traffic28 Feb 2026
- Marine war-risk cover for the Gulf is terminated and repriced5 Mar 2026
- The IMO states there is no safe transit anywhere in the Strait of Hormuz24 Apr 2026
- Iran establishes a Persian Gulf Strait AuthorityMay 2026
- Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan sign a joint defence agreement in Mecca7 Aug 2026
Vigil analysis 3
Analytical Notes
Weekly Briefs that reviewed it1 review
Weekly Briefs 1
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Assessed as of — 2026-09-04 Last reviewed — 2026-09-04