Is Bab el-Mandeb still usable, and for whom?

Movement observed

An offensive for the shore began on 4–5 October with coalition air cover stated for the strait — an air and ground operation, not a naval one in the approaches, so the coalition-operation observable is not met. On 10 October government sources said the waterway was not secured and Perim stayed Houthi-held. No independent interference with non-Saudi shipping read; transits not read.

Brief item The offensive for the Bab el-Mandeb shore began, and the shore is claimed, not retakenEvent Yemen's government and the Saudi-led coalition open an offensive for the Houthi-held coast and SanaaReviewed in 2026-10-11

Movement observed

Fourth window without independently observed interference with non-Saudi shipping (JMIC, 1 Oct). Yanbu loadings reported resumed 25–28 Sep on tracker data, not independently confirmed by JMIC. A Saudi offensive to retake the shore is reported in planning (Reuters, 2 Oct), which is not an operation. Transits stay below the pre-embargo level.

Brief item Yanbu is loading again on every account but the operator'sReviewed in 2026-10-04

Movement observed

A third consecutive window with no independently observed interference with non-Saudi shipping from the Houthi-held shore, which is the observable. The Yanbu-loadings observable reversed: with the east–west pipeline reported restarted on 22 September, a first cargo was scheduled at Yanbu, and the movement claimed Aramco facilities there on 24 September while the coalition reported the missiles intercepted. Tracked weekend transits were 51 on 19–20 September against 57 a week earlier. Found late and dated to when it happened: Italy's defence minister announced on 18 September a national deployment of warships to protect Italian shipping through the strait — an announcement, not yet an operation, so the coalition-operation observable is not met.

Brief item Houthi fire reached Riyadh, and the help that arrived came from London and Paris, one state at a timeEvent The east–west pipeline is reported restarted at a low rateReviewed in 2026-09-27

Movement observed

Houthi forces took Greater and Lesser Hanish, reported 14 September, completing the seizure of the Yemeni islands around the strait that began on 10 September. No independently observed interference with non-Saudi shipping from any of the new positions was identified in the window, which is the observable, and the declared exception for Saudi shipping remains a declaration. The Yanbu-loadings observable moved sharply the other way: with the east-west pipeline shut, Saudi crude has been rerouted through Hormuz rather than out of the Red Sea. Reported second-quarter throughput of 8.1 million barrels a day and August capacity at 23 per cent of the pre-crisis level are carried on the economy section with their vintages.

Event The Houthi movement takes the southern Red Sea coast and reaches Bab el-MandebWeekly Brief Iran–Gulf developments — 20 September 2026

Movement observed

First weekly review after the baseline. The shore changed hands on 10 and 11 September and the waterway did not close: no independently observed interference with non-Saudi shipping from the new positions has been read, the movement’s own statement continues to except Saudi-linked vessels by declaration, and the fall in transits is a change in what shipowners chose to do. The distinction the object exists to hold — physical access, declared targeting, observed interdiction — held through the week that tested it.

Brief item The Yemeni side of the second strait changed hands, and the strait stayed openEvent The Houthi movement takes the southern Red Sea coast and reaches Bab el-MandebReviewed in 2026-09-13