Standing assessment
Current condition
Moderate confidenceAs of
Reached repeatedly, restored unevenly, and the alternatives now reached too.
The recorded strike tempo at published energy markers peaked in late March 2026 — Fujairah and Mina al-Ahmadi three times each, Ras Laffan twice, six other markers at least once — and fell to a handful of records after the 8 April ceasefire. Since July the reach has moved to the Red Sea coast: Jazan three times, and on 10 September the east–west pipeline, shut with no restart announced. Restoration is stated only in part: Fujairah resumed loadings within a day; Ras Laffan's trains carry a five-year estimate; the pipeline's shutdown has no date.
Latest reviewBaseline
Opened with the Map expansion pass, which added the energy-infrastructure activity series this question reads against. Baseline is the position of the 13 September brief: the pipeline shut with no restart announced, Ras Laffan's trains under a five-year estimate, Jazan struck three times since July, and no further recorded strike at the Gulf-coast markers since the May Fujairah fire.
Why it matters
The distinction that matters is between a node that was struck and a node that is out. A terminal that resumes loadings the next day has absorbed a strike; a liquefaction train with a five-year repair estimate has not; a pipeline that is shut with no restart date is somewhere between, and the difference decides whether the bypass arithmetic the module publishes still holds. This question reads the restoration layer — restart announcements, repair estimates, loadings resumed — against the recorded strike tempo, rather than counting strikes, because a tally is what both the attacker and the host publish and neither describes a system's state. Nothing here ranks nodes, grades vulnerability or names what a state cannot do without.
Why continued absence matters
A season in which no further strike is recorded at the energy markers and no restart is announced either is itself the finding: the nodes are not being reached and not being declared restored, and the shut-in series and the bypass loadings — not this count — say what that means.
Observables6 named · “met” describes evidence, not success
01Test
Restart, resumption or repair announcements at struck nodes
An operator or ministry statement that a named terminal, refinery, processing plant or pipeline has resumed, with a date — as distinct from a statement that a fire was extinguished. Read against the next recorded strike at the same marker.
02Test
The Ras Laffan repair estimate
Any operator statement moving the up-to-five-year estimate for the two damaged trains in either direction, or reporting a train returned. Liquefaction has no substitute, so this is the one node with no bypass argument attached.
03Test
The east–west pipeline's restart
A restart date, a rate, or a published damage assessment for the line shut on 10 September, from the ministry or the operator; and whether the April pumping-station damage was ever stated to be repaired.
04Test
Loadings at Yanbu and Fujairah after each strike
Measured loadings resuming at the two bypass outlets after a recorded strike, and how long each interruption lasted — the effect the energy series cannot carry and this object reads.
05Test
The furthest node reached, and by whom
Whether the recorded strike tempo moves to nodes not reached before — the Red Sea coast from July, the pipeline's interior from September — as a fact about reach, never about effect. A first strike from Iraqi territory (10 September) is the current outer mark.
06Test
A published damage assessment for any struck node
An operator, ministry or independent assessment of what was damaged at a named node, which no party has published for the pipeline, Ras Tanura or the Omani ports. Attacker battle-damage claims are not this.
What would change the assessment3 assessment-change conditions · qualitative, as the record states them
Restart announcements at every node struck since July, with the pipeline back in service at a stated rate and no further recorded strike at those markers
Assessment effectreads as a system absorbing the campaign.
A further recorded strike at Jazan, Yanbu or the pipeline before a restart is announced
Assessment effectmoves the Red Sea route from a node struck to a route interrupted and changes the bypass arithmetic the module publishes.
A published damage assessment for the pipeline or Ras Laffan that revises the repair timescale in either direction
Assessment effectis the point at which the module's logistics records change.
What remains unknown
- Nobody independent counts strikes on Gulf energy nodes; the tempo Vigil records is a count of reported occurrences at published markers, stated with its coverage and gaps, and excludes the power and desalination plants the module does not identify.
- Restart and throughput figures are operator statements or commercial estimates; no Gulf operator publishes node-level output during the war.
- The April pipeline strike's duration and the September shutdown's damage are both unstated by any official source.
Readings the evidence also supports
- Reduced loadings at a struck outlet may reflect the state of the strait or the Red Sea route rather than the node, in which case restoration is complete and the constraint is elsewhere; the object reads restarts, not loadings alone, for that reason.
- The fall in recorded strikes after the April ceasefire may reflect the ceasefire and the June memorandum rather than any restoration, in which case a resumed campaign would reach the same nodes at the same tempo.
Listed because the record's own assessment is not the only one its sources permit — not as a hedge on the assessment above.
Review ledger1 entry · opened · newest first, each tied to the review that made it
Baseline
Opened with the Map expansion pass, which added the energy-infrastructure activity series this question reads against. Baseline is the position of the 13 September brief: the pipeline shut with no restart announced, Ras Laffan's trains under a five-year estimate, Jazan struck three times since July, and no further recorded strike at the Gulf-coast markers since the May Fujairah fire.
Connected system40 canonical records this question runs through · Watch owns the edge; each record shows the question back
Parties and forces 10
- Saudi ArabiaLargest regional producer · de-escalation pole
- UAEMost-struck Gulf state · second Hormuz alternative
- QatarPrincipal mediator · most structurally exposed state
- KuwaitPrincipal US logistics host · acute water and power exposure
- BahrainUS naval host · Gulf diplomatic drafter
- OmanMediation channel of record · exports outside the strait
- IranRegional power · belligerent in the current war
- Houthi movementArmed movement · Bab el-Mandeb access
- IsraelCo-belligerent · Gulf defence partner
- United StatesBelligerent · security guarantor · basing partner
Means and systems 7
Logistics
Ground 13
Arrangements and events 5
- Saudi Arabia halts the Ras Tanura refinery after a drone attack2 Mar 2026
- Energy and shipping targets struck across four Gulf states2 – 3 Mar 2026
- Two liquefaction trains are damaged at Ras Laffan18 Mar 2026
- The heaviest Houthi attack wave against Saudi territory of this round8 Sep 2026
- The east–west pipeline is attacked by drones from Iraq and shut as a precaution10 Sep 2026
Vigil analysis 5
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Assessed as of — 2026-09-13 Last reviewed — 2026-09-13