Deliberately slower than the news: each brief is written when the picture has settled, not while it is moving.
Iran–Gulf developments — 18 October 2026
Strikes in the strait went on at their October pace, and the attacks spread. A container ship struck on 13 October sank the next day, the second large ocean-going ship confirmed sunk in the war. Tankers were reported struck off Saudi Arabia's Gulf coast at Al Jubail, and Iran's navy told ships east of the strait to coordinate with it. UKMTO counted combined transits about 70 per cent below pre-war. It said most attacked ships no longer report, so its count is a floor. No cover was found written, and nothing changed in the IMO's view or the legal régime. On the Saudi front, Houthi missiles reached the Yemeni government's seat in Aden. The Security Council, in a presidential statement, affirmed Saudi Arabia's right of self-defence; the statement authorises nothing. Egypt offered to defend the kingdom if asked, outside the Makkah Agreement, and no force was attributed to that agreement. Nothing between Washington and Tehran is in force. The IAEA's pages could not be read, and verification access was not reviewed.
Earlier reviews
6 reviews, newest first. Each is a dated record with its own page, sources and confidence grades — including the reviews that found nothing, which say so.
2026-10-11
Iran–Gulf developments — 11 October 2026
2026-10-04
Iran–Gulf developments — 4 October 2026
2026-09-27
Iran–Gulf developments — 27 September 2026
2026-09-20
Iran–Gulf developments — 20 September 2026
2026-09-13
Iran–Gulf developments — 13 September 2026
2026-09-04
Iran–Gulf baseline — 4 September 2026