Weekly Developments
What changed and why it matters, reviewed once a week. Deliberately slower than the news: each brief is written when the picture has settled, not while it is moving. Every item states its reporting window, sources and confidence, on the brief's own page.
Iran–Gulf baseline — 4 September 2026
The module's baseline picture at launch. Six months into an interstate war, the Strait of Hormuz has never been physically closed and has been commercially unusable since March: what stopped the traffic was the withdrawal of marine war-risk cover, not the water. Production shut-ins peaked above eleven million barrels a day and Qatar lost around 17% of its liquefaction capacity for a period its operator estimates in years. Iran has struck all six Gulf Arab states, two of which have since signed defence arrangements outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The IAEA stopped verification activities in Iran on the war's opening day and can establish nothing about the programme since. No agreement has been in force since 17 August. No delta section appears below: this is the first brief for this module, so there is nothing to compare it against.