Named protection-and-indemnity clubs issue 72-hour notices terminating existing war-risk extensions, effective 5 March 2026. Replacement cover is offered at rates one specialist source records as roughly $30,000 per week against about $25,000 per year previously, and tanker traffic through the strait collapses by more than 80%.
Why it mattersThis, and not the closure declaration, is what stopped commercial traffic. The strait remained legally open and physically passable and stopped carrying trade anyway — the module's central analytical finding, and the reason it models commercial access as a question of its own.
Confidence: ModerateSources: Established international media reporting · Congressional Research Service — Iran, the Gulf and the Strait of HormuzMethodologyCorrections
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