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Political / command: 4 published markers in Caucasus carry this system value. No system record has been written for it yet; everything on this page is derived from those markers and the records that name them.
Nodes
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- Armenian external access — two borders open, two closedGeneral trade · 10 nodes · 6 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesA landlocked country whose shortest routes to the world have been shut for thirty years, and what that does to everything else.
- The Middle Corridor — east–west trade transitGeneral trade · 8 nodes · 3 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesThe overland route between China and Europe that avoids both Russia and Iran, and which works in the places where it has actually been built.
- Caspian energy export — the westward pipeline systemFuel imports · 5 nodes · 3 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesThe reason this small region has the attention of capitals that could not otherwise place it: oil and gas going west without crossing Russia or Iran.
- TRIPP — the proposed Syunik transit routeGeneral trade · 5 nodes · 3 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesEighteen months of instruments, one season of surveys, and not a metre of road.
Transmission chains through this system
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Closed borders → narrow transit → Armenian economic costEconomic exposure · as of 2026-06
- asset Confirmed
- disruption Confirmed
- exposure Confirmed
- significance Plausible exposure
- Blockade → displacement → the files that outlast itCivilian impact · as of 2026-08
- asset Confirmed
- disruption Confirmed
- exposure Confirmed
- significance Plausible exposure
- Transit concentration in Georgia → regional economic exposureEconomic exposure · as of 2026-06
- asset Confirmed
- disruption Confirmed
- exposure Confirmed
- significance Plausible exposure
Watch questions bearing on it
- Does Georgia's EU track move from penalised to suspended — or reverse?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Does the Armenia–Türkiye border open?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Does the Chechen succession question produce an observable event?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Has the initialled peace agreement been signed?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Has TRIPP moved from framework and survey into construction?active · Movement observed 2026-09-28
- Is Armenia's economic tie to Russia changing by institutional act rather than by pressure and statement?active · Baseline 2026-09-28
- Is Armenia's realignment becoming institutional rather than declaratory?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
Events at its nodes
20 – 21 August 2026Pashinyan applies the Alma-Ata baseline to the enclaves, and Armenian politics reactsDec 2025 – Mar 2026Georgia's accession moves from frozen to penalised5 – 17 Feb 2026Baku sentences the former Karabakh leadershipMay – Dec 2024Georgia's EU accession freezesApr – May 2018Armenia's Velvet Revolution1999 – 2009Second Chechen War31 Aug 1996Khasavyurt AccordDec 1994 – Aug 1996First Chechen War13 – 20 Jan 1990Baku pogrom and "Black January"9 Apr 1989The Tbilisi massacre27 – 29 Feb 1988Sumgait pogrom23 Feb 1944Deportation of the Chechen and Ingush peoples
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Derived from 4 published markers and the records that name them. No review date is shown because no system record has been reviewed. All systems in this module →