DiplomaticState controlActive
Has the initialled peace agreement been signed?
Agreed, initialled, signed, ratified, implemented — five states, treated as five. The draft constitution and a referendum date are the near-term observables.
- Opened
- Last reviewed
- Status as of
- Reviews
- 14 since 2026-07-26
- Confidence
- High confidence
A Watch question is not a forecast. It names the evidence that would change an assessment and records what each review found — including the reviews that found nothing moved.
Where it stands
Standing assessment
Current assessment
High confidenceAs of
The text was agreed in March 2025 and initialled at the White House on 8 August 2025.
It is not signed. Azerbaijan's stated precondition — that Armenia first amend its constitution — is unchanged; Armenia's drafting council is to produce a text by the end of 2026 for a referendum slated for 2027, and no draft has been published. The Bishkek joint statement of 31 August restates the treaty's status without advancing it and does not mention the constitutional requirement, which no Azerbaijani official has said is dropped. The OSCE Minsk Group's dissolution, long an outstanding precondition, is done.
Latest reviewNo material change
No signature, new text, timetable, referendum date or draft constitution, and no Azerbaijani statement on the constitutional condition was found.
Weekly BriefCaucasus developments — 25 October 2026
The standing file was checked and nothing moved. A finding, not an absence. The condition stands as of .
- 2026-08-09: No material change
- 2026-08-16: No material change
- 2026-08-23: No material change
- 2026-08-30: No material change
- 2026-09-06: No material change
- 2026-09-13: No material change
- 2026-09-20: No material change
- 2026-09-27: Movement observed
- 2026-10-04: Movement observed
- 2026-10-11: No material change
- 2026-10-18: Movement observed
- 2026-10-25: No material change
What would change the assessment3 assessment-change conditions · qualitative, as the record states them
Signature
Assessment effectresolves the question and opens the successor on ratification and implementation.
Baku dropping or revising the constitutional precondition in an official statement
Assessment effectremoves the stated obstacle without a signature.
The referendum failing or the draft withdrawn
Assessment effectmoves the question from a timetable to a structural block.
Observables5 named · “met” describes evidence, not success
01Test
The draft constitution published
The text the drafting council produces, and whether it retains the reference to the Declaration of Independence that Baku objects to.
02Test
A referendum date set
A date fixed by the government or parliament, as distinct from the 2027 horizon restated.
03Test
Baku's precondition restated, revised or dropped
An Azerbaijani official statement on the constitutional condition. Its absence from a joint statement is an observation about the document, not evidence the requirement has moved.
04Test
Signature of the initialled text
The act itself, by both heads of state or government. Resolves this question and opens its successor.
05Test
A new text, a re-initialling or an announced timetable
Any change to the March 2025 text or a stated schedule toward signature.
Review ledger14 entries · opened · newest first, each tied to the review that made it
No material change
No signature, new text, timetable, referendum date or draft constitution, and no Azerbaijani statement on the constitutional condition was found.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 25 October 2026
Movement observed
On 15 October Pashinyan said both countries were in the final stage of institutionalising peace and that the process should be completed by 2031, the end of his term. That is a stated personal horizon, not a schedule toward signature, so new-text-or-timetable is not met. No signature, draft constitution or referendum date, and no Azerbaijani statement on the constitutional condition was found.
Brief item Armenia proposed exchanging the enclaves by equal area and set 2031 as its horizon; there is no agreement, and Baku has not answeredReviewed in 2026-10-18
No material change
No signature, draft constitution, referendum date, new text or timetable, and no Azerbaijani primary readout of the 3 October Bern remarks. Missing-persons contacts on 8 October and a three-way meeting reported by Kommersant and denied by Yerevan on 9 October are recorded in the brief.
Brief item In Turkmenistan, a Russia–Azerbaijan–Iran meeting was confirmed and a three-way meeting with Armenia was reported and denied; the treaty did not moveReviewed in 2026-10-11
Movement observed
Movement, not change. Azerbaijan's presidential envoy Elchin Amirbekov said in Bern on 3 October, as RFE/RL's Armenian service reported, that removing legal discrepancies between the agreement and Armenia's Constitution is necessary and unavoidable: the condition named, not left unnamed as on 26 September. No draft, referendum date, text or timetable.
Observable Baku's precondition restated, revised or droppedBrief item Baku named the constitution as the obstacle and Yerevan restated the priority; nothing procedural movedReviewed in 2026-10-04
Movement observed
The foreign ministers met in New York on 24 September and agreed to continue direct dialogue; Armenia's prime minister called signing and ratification the next major topic, and on 26 September Azerbaijan's foreign minister said signing required eliminating the remaining obstacle, without naming the constitution. The precondition was restated in oblique form, not dropped. No draft constitution, referendum date, new text or timetable.
Brief item New York restated every position and moved no instrument — while trade with Azerbaijan became two-way, by one shipmentReviewed in 2026-09-27
No material change
Checked, and kept apart from the week's ruling. Armenia's Constitutional Court cleared the TRIPP framework agreement on strategic cooperation, which is a separate instrument from the initialled Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement; it is not a step toward signature and is not read as one. No draft constitution was published, no referendum date was set, no precondition was restated or dropped and no new text or timetable appeared.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 20 September 2026
No material change
Unsigned. No signature, no date, no published constitutional draft, and no statement by any Azerbaijani official withdrawing the constitutional precondition was identified. The delimitation sequencing agreed on 9 September concerns the border commissions and not the treaty text.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 13 September 2026
No material change
The Bishkek statement restates the treaty's status without advancing it. Its silence on the constitutional requirement is an observation about the document, not evidence the requirement has been dropped — no Azerbaijani official has said so. No new draft published.
Brief item Baku and Yerevan publish what peace has produced, and leave out what it has notEvent Baku and Yerevan publish an inventory of what normalisation has deliveredReviewed in 2026-09-06
No material change
No change in Baku's stated precondition. Pro-Russian opposition figures demanded on 23–24 August that the Declaration of Independence reference be retained, and a new draft is described as due for public discussion within weeks. Neither is a change in the process; the draft's text is the thing to read when it appears.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 30 August 2026
No material change
No signature, new text or announced timetable identified. The initialled text stands.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 23 August 2026
No material change
The anniversary joint statement does not address signature; the initialled text of March 2025 stands. The June election left the governing party short of the majority a referendum requires.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 16 August 2026
No material change
No signature, new text, initialling or announced timetable. Nothing supports describing the process as having advanced or broken down.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 9 August 2026
No material change
No signature, new text, initialling or announced timetable identified; no change in Baku's stated precondition or in Yerevan's constitutional-amendment process.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 2 August 2026
Baseline
Opened from the module's standing question at its first weekly review: ratification track unchanged; no new signature, text or timetable.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 26 July 2026
Connected system18 canonical records this question runs through · Watch owns the edge; each record shows the question back
Parties and forces 5
Means and systems 1
Ground 3
Arrangements and events 4
Relationships
Vigil analysis 6
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Assessed as of — 2026-09-06 Last reviewed — 2026-10-25