PoliticalState controlActive
Has delimitation extended beyond the 2024 Tavush section?
Which sections are taken up next and in what order — delimitation on the map, demarcation on the ground, and the enclaves last.
- Opened
- Last reviewed
- Status as of
- Reviews
- 8 since 2026-08-23
- Confidence
- High confidence
A Watch question is not a forecast. It names the evidence that would change an assessment and records what each review found — including the reviews that found nothing moved.
Where it stands
Standing assessment
Current assessment
High confidenceAs of
One section has been delimited since the mechanism was created: roughly a dozen kilometres in the Tavush direction in 2024, with four villages transferred to Azerbaijani control.
The commissions have agreed the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration and the Soviet-era maps in force at the time as the baseline. The Armenian-administered enclaves are the hardest sections and one sits on Armenia's principal north–south road; no further section has been taken up.
Latest reviewNo material change
No commission meeting, section or marker, and no Azerbaijani response to Armenia's enclave-exchange proposal: the Azerbaijani foreign ministry's press releases stop at 20 October. The enclaves remain one side's proposal.
Weekly BriefCaucasus developments — 25 October 2026
The standing file was checked and nothing moved. A finding, not an absence. The condition stands as of .
- 2026-08-23: Baseline
- 2026-09-13: Movement observed
- 2026-09-20: No material change
- 2026-09-27: No material change
- 2026-10-04: No material change
- 2026-10-11: No material change
- 2026-10-18: Movement observed
- 2026-10-25: No material change
What would change the assessment2 assessment-change conditions · qualitative, as the record states them
A second section delimited by commission communiqué, or an enclaves arrangement published
Assessment effectmoves the process from a single precedent to a practice.
Marker movement on a section not delimited
Assessment effectshows the ground moving ahead of the map.
Observables4 named · “met” describes evidence, not success
01Test
The next section taken up by the commissions
A commission communiqué naming a section, in whatever order. Order is the finding.
02Test
An arrangement for the Armenian-administered enclaves
Transfer, exchange, corridor or deferral — and what happens to the north–south road through one of them.
03Test
Marker placement or movement on the ground
Demarcation as distinct from delimitation: markers placed, moved or removed on any section, reported by either border service.
04Test
A departure from the 1991 Alma-Ata baseline
Either commission proposing a line that the Soviet-era maps do not support, which changes the rule rather than the section.
Review ledger8 entries · opened · newest first, each tied to the review that made it
No material change
No commission meeting, section or marker, and no Azerbaijani response to Armenia's enclave-exchange proposal: the Azerbaijani foreign ministry's press releases stop at 20 October. The enclaves remain one side's proposal.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 25 October 2026
Movement observed
On 14 October Pashinyan proposed resolving the enclaves by an exchange of territories of corresponding size, and on 15 October said delimitation must come first. Armenian officials said the exchange was being discussed and that no agreement exists; Baku had not answered publicly. A one-sided proposal is not an arrangement, so enclaves-arrangement is not met. No commission meeting, section or marker was found.
Brief item Armenia proposed exchanging the enclaves by equal area and set 2031 as its horizon; there is no agreement, and Baku has not answeredReviewed in 2026-10-18
No material change
No commission meeting, section, markers or enclaves arrangement found; the last meeting found is the 13th, in April. The dismissal on 5 October of the security-service deputy for border guards is a personnel change, not a delimitation event.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 11 October 2026
No material change
No commission meeting, section, markers or enclaves arrangement found; the check was thin. An Azerbaijani deserter who wounded a woman in Shaki, Syunik, on 1 October was detained and charged after Baku had told Yerevan on 29 September he was missing: a criminal case, not a delimitation event.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 4 October 2026
No material change
No commission meeting was reported in the window, no section was taken up after Tavush, and no markers or enclave arrangement were announced. The last reported activity remains the reciprocal visits of 5 September. The check of commission activity after 21 September was lighter than usual and is recorded as such.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 27 September 2026
No material change
Checked. No section taken up after Tavush, no marker placement reported, no enclaves arrangement and no departure from the 1991 baseline. The commissions did not meet publicly in the window.
Weekly Brief Caucasus developments — 20 September 2026
Movement observed
Azerbaijan’s foreign minister said on 9 September that the two sides have agreed to work from the tripoint with Georgia southward, beginning with the harder northern sections. That is a sequencing agreement about method, and the question asks whether delimitation has extended beyond Tavush: it has not. No second section has been taken up, no new ground has changed hands and the enclaves remain untouched.
Brief item Baku and Yerevan agree where to start delimiting, which is not the same as startingReviewed in 2026-09-13
Baseline
Opened on the 23 August finding that the enclaves — the hardest sections, one on Armenia's principal north–south road — are the next test of the mechanism.
Brief item Armenia's government states what its own agreed method implies for the enclavesEvent Pashinyan applies the Alma-Ata baseline to the enclaves, and Armenian politics reactsReviewed in 2026-08-23
Connected system26 canonical records this question runs through · Watch owns the edge; each record shows the question back
Parties and forces 8
Actors
Means and systems 2
Campaigns
Ground 8
Places
Arrangements and events 5
Vigil analysis 3
Profile
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Assessed as of — 2026-08-23 Last reviewed — 2026-10-25