VIGIL CONSILIUM
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Coverage · South Caucasus

Key event

Armenia and Azerbaijan conclude a draft peace text

13 Mar 2025

What happened

Both governments announce that negotiations on the text of a bilateral peace agreement have concluded — the first agreed draft in three decades of conflict. Signature is not scheduled: Baku conditions it on changes to Armenia's constitution and the formal dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group structures.

A genuine threshold and a deliberately incomplete one: the text exists, the preconditions keep it unsigned, and the leverage of the stronger party continues to operate between initialling and signature. The gap between "agreed" and "in force" is where the region's risk now lives.

Confidence: High

When13 Mar 2025
KindDiplomatic
ArenaArmenia–Azerbaijan / Karabakh legacy
Confidence: High Sources: Reuters↗ · RFE/RL (Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty)↗ · Official government statements · International Crisis Group↗ Methodology Corrections

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Watch questions this event bears on

Standing analytical questions whose evidence runs through this event, each with its latest review. Derived from the Watch object, never restated here.

  • DiplomaticHas the initialled peace agreement been signed?Unchanged
    1. 2026-08-23: No material change
    2. 2026-08-30: No material change
    3. 2026-09-06: No material change
    4. 2026-09-13: No material change
    5. 2026-09-20: No material change
    6. 2026-09-27: Movement observed
    7. 2026-10-04: Movement observed
    8. 2026-10-11: No material change

Connected records

3 records that this event names, or that name it — every one an explicit reference in a published record, nothing inferred from subject matter.

Part of1

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Actors2

Actor records this event names.

Where this fits

This is one entry in the Caucasus timeline. The full Key Events surface carries every dated turning point with its filters and its essential subset, and this event in place shows what came before and after it. How Vigil grades, dates and sources its claims is set out in the methodology.