ما هذه المنظومة
Around 20 million barrels a day of crude and products moved through Hormuz in the 2025 baseline, roughly a third of global crude trade; every core state except Oman loads into an enclosed sea with one outlet. Every bypass combined is a 3.5 to 5.5 million b/d ceiling, and gas has no bypass at all.
The physical basis of the module's central finding: that the Gulf's exposure is a matter of outlets and liquefaction, not of oil in the ground, and that the bypass argument which applies to crude in part applies to gas not at all.
الثقة: عالية حتى 2026-10-01رُوجع 2026-10-04
المنظومة
- نظرة عامة
- The system runs from the fields — the shared North Dome / South Pars gas field, Saudi and Emirati crude — through processing at Abqaiq and Habshan, liquefaction at Ras Laffan, and the terminals at Ras Tanura, Kharg, Mina al-Ahmadi, Sitra and Mina al-Fahal, every one of which loads into the Gulf. The partial alternatives are the Saudi East–West (Petroline) system to Yanbu, with a roughly 7 million b/d emergency ceiling established in 2019 that was never a demonstrated sustained rate, and the UAE's ADCOP line to Fujairah at just under 2 million b/d; Iraq's line to Türkiye reopened in September 2025 at a fraction of pre-war exports; Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman have no bypass. Gas is different in kind: Qatar exported close to a fifth of global LNG through Hormuz in the 2025 baseline and has no pipeline and no terminal that avoids the strait, so the constraint is liquefaction rather than the route.
- Current state · as of 2026-10-01
- Two of Ras Laffan's fourteen trains were damaged on 18 March 2026 — about 17 per cent of Qatari export capacity on the EIA's figure — with the operator's own repair estimate at up to five years; Qatar's 2026 exports are forecast at roughly half the pre-conflict level. Aramco announced a ramp of the East–West system to full capacity on 10–11 March 2026, and an Iranian drone strike in April temporarily disabled about 700,000 b/d of Yanbu's commercially estimated handling. In September 2026 Gulf crude exports excluding Iran regained the pre-war level by route rather than by reopening: about 60 per cent crossed the strait on shuttle tankers and the rest left from Fujairah and the Red Sea (Kpler). The East–West line, restarted after the 10 September attack, is estimated at 2 to 2.65 million b/d by trackers, with no operator figure.
- Documented exposure
- At the level the IEA, the EIA and the operators publish: the capacity and ceiling figures above, the share of Qatari export capacity damaged, and the commercial estimate of Yanbu handling. No facility-level state is published here.
- Commodities and outputs
- Crude oil and refined products · Liquefied natural gas · Refined product imports and power fuel
العُقد
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- الفجيرةميناء
The UAE's outlet beyond the strait, fed by the ADCOP line at just under 2 million b/d of capacity.
- جزيرة خاركميناء
Iran's principal crude outlet, inside the enclosed sea like every other.
- رأس لفانميناء
The liquefaction and export complex with no substitute; two of fourteen trains damaged in March 2026.
- رأس تنورةميناء
Saudi Arabia's principal Gulf terminal, loading into the enclosed sea.
- صحارميناء
- ينبعميناء
The Red Sea end of the East–West system — the largest partial bypass, and a ceiling rather than a flow.
- بقيقمركز صناعي
- ممر خط أنابيب أبوظبي للنفط الخامممر · شريان إمداد وتجارة
- ممر خط الأنابيب بين الشرق والغرب (Petroline)ممر · شريان إمداد وتجارة
- ممر خط أنابيب غوره–جاسكممر · شريان إمداد وتجارة
- حبشانمركز صناعي
- جاسكميناء
- جازانمصفاة
- ميناء الأحمديميناء
- ميناء الفحلميناء
- حقل القبة الشمالية / بارس الجنوبي للغازمنطقة تعدين · إقليم واسع
- الدقمميناء
- الرويسمصفاة
- صلالةميناء
- سترةميناء
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- منظومة تصدير الخام والمنتجات المعتمدة على هرمزMineral export · 8 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · named by the recordالمنظومة التي ترسل عبرها ست من الدول الخليجية السبع الأساسية نفطها إلى السوق، متقاربةً عند مضيق واحد.
- منظومة تصدير الغاز الطبيعي المسال القطريةGas & LNG · 3 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · named by the recordأوضح تبعية في الملف: ما يقارب خُمس الغاز الطبيعي المسال في العالم، ومجمع واحد، ومضيق واحد، ولا بديل ذا شأن.
- العبور السعودي للنفط الخام شرق–غربMineral export · 4 nodes · 7 documented disruptions · named by the recordأكبر بديل قائم لهرمز، تحدّه محطته لا خط أنابيبه، ويفضي إلى مضيق ثانٍ متنازع عليه.
- منفذ التصدير البديل للإماراتMineral export · 3 nodes · 1 documented disruption · named by the recordالمنفذ الالتفافي الرئيسي الوحيد الذي يبلغ المحيط المفتوح مباشرة — أصغر مما يُفترض عادةً، ويمكن الوصول إليه هو نفسه.
- منظومة تصدير النفط الخام الإيرانيةMineral export · 4 nodes · 3 documented disruptions · named by the recordمحطة واحدة داخل المضيق، ومنفذ التفافي بُني ولم يكد يُستخدم.
Organisations that run it
- Saudi AramcoState enterprise · ActiveThe state oil company that operates the East–West pipeline system to Yanbu — the largest of the partial alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, and a capacity figure rather than a demonstrated sustained rate.
- QatarEnergyState enterprise · ActiveThe state operator of Ras Laffan and of close to a fifth of global LNG supply, every tonne of which leaves through the Strait of Hormuz because no pipeline or alternative terminal exists.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
The Strait of Hormuz. Every core state except Oman loads into an enclosed sea whose only outlet is the strait; every alternative combined is estimated at 3.5 to 5.5 million b/d against a normal strait volume of about 20 million — a capacity comparison, not a measurement of what moved.
Liquefaction capacity at Ras Laffan. LNG has no pipeline substitute and no alternative terminal; capacity destroyed is capacity destroyed, and no rerouting shortens it.
The East–West pipeline and Yanbu. The largest partial bypass, carrying a 2019 emergency ceiling never demonstrated as a sustained rate; wartime handling at Yanbu is a commercial estimate, of which roughly two thirds feeds Aramco's own Red Sea refineries before export crude can load.
Marine war-risk cover. The mechanism that stopped the traffic: cover, not capacity, decides whether a loaded tanker sails. Documented on the commercial-closure chain.
A second ADCOP line targeting 3.6 million b/d by mid-2027 is a plan, not an asset.
The repair timeline at Ras Laffan is the operator's own estimate; no independent assessment of it was read.
An Iranian drone strike temporarily disabled about 700,000 b/d of Yanbu's commercially estimated wartime handling.
Two of Ras Laffan's fourteen liquefaction trains were damaged — about 17 per cent of Qatari export capacity on the EIA's figure, roughly 12.8 Mtpa — with repairs estimated by the operator at up to five years.
Aramco announced a ramp of the East–West system to full capacity, against a roughly 7 million b/d emergency ceiling established in 2019.
سلاسل الانتقال عبر هذه المنظومة
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- اضطراب هرمز وحدود الالتفافEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure انكشاف معقول
- significance انكشاف معقول
- الغاز الطبيعي المسال القطري وغياب البديلEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure مؤكَّد
- significance انكشاف معقول
- منفذ الالتفاف ونقطة الاختناق الثانيةEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure انكشاف معقول
- significance انكشاف معقول
- الانسحاب التجاري أغلق المضيقEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure مؤكَّد
- significance مؤكَّد
- حيث تكون الكهرباء والمياه منظومة واحدةCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure انكشاف معقول
- significance انكشاف معقول
- طواقم على متن سفن لم تستطع الحركةCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure مؤكَّد
- significance مؤكَّد
Watch questions bearing on it
- هل عاد مضيق هرمز صالحًا للاستخدام التجاري؟active · Assessment changed 2026-10-04
- هل تُستعاد عقد الطاقة الثابتة في الخليج أسرع مما تُضرب مجددًا؟active · Movement observed 2026-10-04
- هل يصبح الدفاع الجوي والصاروخي في الخليج متكاملًا مؤسسيًا؟active · No material change 2026-10-04
- هل يصبح اتفاق مكة آلية دفاعية عملياتية؟active · No material change 2026-10-04
- هل تستقر الجبهة السعودية–الحوثية على ترتيب تفاوضي، أم تتصاعد إلى حملة سعودية في اليمن؟active · Assessment changed 2026-10-04
- هل لا يزال باب المندب صالحًا للاستخدام، ولمن؟active · Movement observed 2026-10-04
- من هاجم رأس تنورة؟active · No material change 2026-10-04
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
مذكرات تحليلية
Actors and arrangements
ما لا يزال مجهولًا
- No sustained wartime throughput for the East–West system has been published; the record carries ceilings and a commercial estimate.
افتح في «استكشف» تفاعلي: اختر هذا السجل وتتبّع ما يرتبط به.
التقييم حتى — 2026-10-01 آخر مراجعة — 2026-10-04