Was dieses System ist
Around 20 million barrels a day of crude and products moved through Hormuz in the 2025 baseline, roughly a third of global crude trade; every core state except Oman loads into an enclosed sea with one outlet. Every bypass combined is a 3.5 to 5.5 million b/d ceiling, and gas has no bypass at all.
The physical basis of the module's central finding: that the Gulf's exposure is a matter of outlets and liquefaction, not of oil in the ground, and that the bypass argument which applies to crude in part applies to gas not at all.
Konfidenz: hoch Stand 2026-09-22Überprüft am 2026-10-03
Das System
- Überblick
- The system runs from the fields — the shared North Dome / South Pars gas field, Saudi and Emirati crude — through processing at Abqaiq and Habshan, liquefaction at Ras Laffan, and the terminals at Ras Tanura, Kharg, Mina al-Ahmadi, Sitra and Mina al-Fahal, every one of which loads into the Gulf. The partial alternatives are the Saudi East–West (Petroline) system to Yanbu, with a roughly 7 million b/d emergency ceiling established in 2019 that was never a demonstrated sustained rate, and the UAE's ADCOP line to Fujairah at just under 2 million b/d; Iraq's line to Türkiye reopened in September 2025 at a fraction of pre-war exports; Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman have no bypass. Gas is different in kind: Qatar exported close to a fifth of global LNG through Hormuz in the 2025 baseline and has no pipeline and no terminal that avoids the strait, so the constraint is liquefaction rather than the route.
- Current state · as of 2026-09-22
- Two of Ras Laffan's fourteen trains were damaged on 18 March 2026 — about 17 per cent of Qatari export capacity on the EIA's figure — with the operator's own repair estimate at up to five years; Qatar's 2026 exports are forecast at roughly half the pre-conflict level. Aramco announced a ramp of the East–West system to full capacity on 10–11 March 2026, and an Iranian drone strike in April temporarily disabled about 700,000 b/d of Yanbu's commercially estimated handling. The crude-export record was last assessed on 22 September 2026.
- Documented exposure
- At the level the IEA, the EIA and the operators publish: the capacity and ceiling figures above, the share of Qatari export capacity damaged, and the commercial estimate of Yanbu handling. No facility-level state is published here.
- Commodities and outputs
- Crude oil and refined products · Liquefied natural gas · Refined product imports and power fuel
Knoten
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- FujairahHafen
The UAE's outlet beyond the strait, fed by the ADCOP line at just under 2 million b/d of capacity.
- Kharg IslandHafen
Iran's principal crude outlet, inside the enclosed sea like every other.
- Ras LaffanHafen
The liquefaction and export complex with no substitute; two of fourteen trains damaged in March 2026.
- Ras TanuraHafen
Saudi Arabia's principal Gulf terminal, loading into the enclosed sea.
- SoharHafen
- YanbuHafen
The Red Sea end of the East–West system — the largest partial bypass, and a ceiling rather than a flow.
- AbqaiqIndustriezentrum
- Korridor der Rohölpipeline von Abu DhabiKorridor · Versorgungs- und Handelsader
- Korridor der Ost-West-Pipeline (Petroline)Korridor · Versorgungs- und Handelsader
- Korridor der Goreh–Jask-PipelineKorridor · Versorgungs- und Handelsader
- HabshanIndustriezentrum
- JaskHafen
- JazanRaffinerie
- Mina al-AhmadiHafen
- Mina al-FahalHafen
- Gasfeld North Dome / South ParsBergbaugebiet · weite Region
- DuqmHafen
- RuwaisRaffinerie
- SalalahHafen
- SitraHafen
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- Von Hormus abhängiges Exportsystem für Rohöl und ÖlprodukteMineral export · 8 nodes · 3 documented disruptions · named by the recordDas System, über das sechs der sieben Kern-Golfstaaten ihr Öl auf den Markt bringen, zusammenlaufend in einer Meerenge.
- Katarisches LNG-ExportsystemGas & LNG · 3 nodes · 3 documented disruptions · named by the recordDie klarste Abhängigkeit im Modul: fast ein Fünftel des weltweiten LNG, ein Komplex, eine Meerenge und keine Alternative von nennenswerter Größe.
- Saudischer Ost-West-Transit von RohölMineral export · 4 nodes · 6 documented disruptions · named by the recordDie größte existierende Alternative zu Hormus, begrenzt durch ihr Terminal und nicht durch ihre Pipeline, und mündend in eine zweite umkämpfte Meerenge.
- Alternativer Exportzugang der VAEMineral export · 3 nodes · 1 documented disruption · named by the recordDie einzige große Umgehung, die direkt den offenen Ozean erreicht — kleiner als gemeinhin angenommen und selbst erreichbar.
- Iranisches RohölexportsystemMineral export · 4 nodes · 2 documented disruptions · named by the recordEin einzelnes Terminal innerhalb der Meerenge und eine Umgehung, die gebaut und kaum genutzt wurde.
Organisations that run it
- Saudi AramcoState enterprise · ActiveThe state oil company that operates the East–West pipeline system to Yanbu — the largest of the partial alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, and a capacity figure rather than a demonstrated sustained rate.
- QatarEnergyState enterprise · ActiveThe state operator of Ras Laffan and of close to a fifth of global LNG supply, every tonne of which leaves through the Strait of Hormuz because no pipeline or alternative terminal exists.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
The Strait of Hormuz. Every core state except Oman loads into an enclosed sea whose only outlet is the strait; every alternative combined is estimated at 3.5 to 5.5 million b/d against a normal strait volume of about 20 million — a capacity comparison, not a measurement of what moved.
Liquefaction capacity at Ras Laffan. LNG has no pipeline substitute and no alternative terminal; capacity destroyed is capacity destroyed, and no rerouting shortens it.
The East–West pipeline and Yanbu. The largest partial bypass, carrying a 2019 emergency ceiling never demonstrated as a sustained rate; wartime handling at Yanbu is a commercial estimate, of which roughly two thirds feeds Aramco's own Red Sea refineries before export crude can load.
Marine war-risk cover. The mechanism that stopped the traffic: cover, not capacity, decides whether a loaded tanker sails. Documented on the commercial-closure chain.
A second ADCOP line targeting 3.6 million b/d by mid-2027 is a plan, not an asset.
The repair timeline at Ras Laffan is the operator's own estimate; no independent assessment of it was read.
An Iranian drone strike temporarily disabled about 700,000 b/d of Yanbu's commercially estimated wartime handling.
Two of Ras Laffan's fourteen liquefaction trains were damaged — about 17 per cent of Qatari export capacity on the EIA's figure, roughly 12.8 Mtpa — with repairs estimated by the operator at up to five years.
Aramco announced a ramp of the East–West system to full capacity, against a roughly 7 million b/d emergency ceiling established in 2019.
Übertragungsketten durch dieses System
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Die Störung von Hormus und die Grenzen der UmgehungEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Plausible Exposition
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Katarisches LNG und das Fehlen einer AlternativeEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Der Umgehungsausgang und das zweite NadelöhrEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Plausible Exposition
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Der kommerzielle Rückzug hat die Meerenge geschlossenEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Bestätigt
- Wo Strom und Wasser dasselbe System sindCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Plausible Exposition
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Besatzungen an Bord von Schiffen, die sich nicht bewegen konntenCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Bestätigt
Watch questions bearing on it
- Ist die Straße von Hormus wieder kommerziell nutzbar?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Werden die festen Energieknoten am Golf schneller wiederhergestellt, als sie erneut getroffen werden?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Wird die Luft- und Raketenabwehr am Golf institutionell integriert?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Wird das Makkah Agreement zu einem operativen Verteidigungsmechanismus?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Mündet die saudisch–huthische Front in eine ausgehandelte Regelung, oder eskaliert sie zu einer saudischen Kampagne im Jemen?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Ist Bab el-Mandeb noch nutzbar, und für wen?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Wer hat Ras Tanura angegriffen?active · No material change 2026-09-27
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
Analytische Notizen
Actors and arrangements
Was unbekannt bleibt
- No sustained wartime throughput for the East–West system has been published; the record carries ceilings and a commercial estimate.
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Eingeschätzt zum Stand — 2026-09-22 Zuletzt überprüft — 2026-10-03