No system record yet
Contested zone: 17 published markers in Sahel carry this system value. No system record has been written for it yet; everything on this page is derived from those markers and the records that name them.
Nodes
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- AnéfisContested / high-pressure town
- DjiboContested / high-pressure town
- KidalContested / high-pressure town
- MoptiMajor city
- TimbuktuMajor city
- AguelhokContested / high-pressure town
- Fada N'GourmaMajor city
- SanContested / high-pressure town
- TéraContested / high-pressure town
- BanibangouContested / high-pressure town
- DiapagaContested / high-pressure town
- GayériContested / high-pressure town
- Nioro du SahelContested / high-pressure town
- SebbaContested / high-pressure town
- Sourou valleyBorder zone · broad region
- TessitContested / high-pressure town
- Yatenga and LoroumBorder zone · broad region
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- The AES escort corridor through Burkina FasoGeneral trade · 6 nodes · 2 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesThe escorted road on which Burkina Faso and Niger hand convoys to each other at Dori — and on which confederation fuel for Mali has travelled.
- Central Mali sustainment and position regenerationMilitary sustainment · 8 nodes · 5 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesOne hub, a flooded delta and a set of camps that are easier to lose than to put back.
- Northern military sustainmentMilitary sustainment · 6 nodes · 5 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesEvery force that has tried to hold the far north has had to hold one desert road — and the 2026 fighting was fought for exactly that.
Transmission chains through this system
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Road insecurity → market supply → hunger and service collapseCivilian impact · as of 2026-07
- asset Confirmed
- disruption Confirmed
- exposure Confirmed
- significance Plausible exposure
Watch questions bearing on it
- Are the three states becoming more dependent on Russian sustainment?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Can the government supply what it holds?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Does corridor pressure tighten or ease?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Does the confederation do anything its members could not?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Does the JNIM–FLA alignment hold?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Does the state put back a position it has lost?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Is external support to the northern movements a real and continuing arrangement — and can it ever be shown to be?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Is Islamic State Sahel's pressure in western Niger reaching the capital's approaches and the export infrastructure?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Is JNIM moving from raids to sustained territorial administration?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Is the Russian presence growing, static or contracting — per state?active · No material change 2026-09-27
Events at its nodes
Open in Explore Interactive: select this record and follow what connects to it.
Derived from 17 published markers and the records that name them. No review date is shown because no system record has been reviewed. All systems in this module →