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Conflict coverage · Central Sahel

Strategic Profiles

The actor as a whole — political system, leadership, military capacity, alliances, strengths and vulnerabilities. The Force Atlas covers the units and equipment inside each actor.

Explore the system13 analytical layers in this conflict

14 actors, grouped as this conflict's own record groups them. Each opens a full profile: political system, leadership, forces, economy, stated and assessed objectives, constraints and red lines — each figure with its own as-of date, sources and confidence grade.

AES states & allied forces

  • Mali — Transitional Authorities

    State actorGoverning military authority

    The military government formed by the 2020 and 2021 coups under General Assimi Goïta — sovereigntist in rhetoric, Russian-partnered in security, and since 2025 under the most serious military and economic pressure of its tenure.

  • Malian Armed Forces (FAMa)

    State actorState military

    The rebuilt, Russian-partnered military that retook the north in 2023 and lost much of it again in 2026 — expanded, drone-armed, and stretched across three fronts.

  • Alliance of Sahel States (AES)

    State actorRegional confederation

    Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger’s mutual-defence pact turned confederation — the institutional form of the region’s break with ECOWAS and the West, and the vehicle for its Russian partnership.

  • Burkina Faso — Transitional Authorities

    State actorGoverning military authority

    The military government of Captain Ibrahim Traoré, in power since the second coup of 2022 — the most repressive of the three AES transitions, presiding over the region’s largest displacement crisis and its largest armed mobilisation of civilians.

  • Niger — CNSP Transitional Authorities

    State actorGoverning military authority

    The military authorities formed by the July 2023 coup, under General Abdourahamane Tiani — the AES state that expelled both French and American forces, nationalised its uranium, and in August 2026 faced an armed mutiny inside its own capital.

External security partners

  • Russia — Sahel security role

    State actorExternal security partner

    Moscow’s Sahel expedition — Wagner from 2021, the defence-ministry Africa Corps since 2025 — the junta’s indispensable partner, and a presence whose costs and losses are now publicly visible.

  • Türkiye

    State actorDefence supplier

    The supplier of the armed drones that reshaped the northern war — a commercial, condition-free defence relationship that outlasted the Western one without requiring the Russian one’s political price.

Azawad movements

  • Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)

    Non-state actorSeparatist movement

    The unified successor of the northern separatist movements — formed in late 2024, holder of Kidal since April 2026, and the other half of the coordination that has transformed the war.

JNIM & lineage

  • JNIM

    Non-state actorAl-Qaeda-aligned insurgency

    The al-Qaeda-aligned coalition under Iyad Ag Ghaly — the war’s strongest non-state force, now waging economic siege against the capital and coordinated offensives with the FLA.

Islamic State Sahel

  • Islamic State Sahel Province

    Non-state actorIS-aligned insurgency

    The Islamic State’s Sahel province — a separate, rival project to JNIM, strongest in the tri-border zone, expanding opportunistically while its enemies fight each other.

Regional & international

  • Algeria

    State actorNeighbour & historical mediator

    The northern neighbour that brokered every peace deal in Mali’s modern history, ruptured with Bamako for fifteen months over a downed drone, and restored ambassadors and airspace in July 2026.

  • France

    State actorFormer intervention power

    The former colonial power that saved the Malian state in 2013, hunted its enemies for nine years, and left in 2022 having solved none of the political problems underneath — replaced by Russia within months.

  • United Nations / MINUSMA

    State actorFormer peace operation

    The UN’s decade-long stabilisation mission — its deadliest of the era — expelled at Bamako’s demand in 2023, whose departure detonated the frozen northern question it had been containing.

  • ECOWAS

    State actorRegional bloc (exited)

    The West African bloc that sanctioned Mali after its coups and lost it — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger completed their withdrawal in January 2025, the biggest rupture in ECOWAS’s fifty-year history.