埃及與黎凡特 → 以色列與黎凡特

摘要

Israeli gas has flowed to Egypt since 2020. In August 2025 the Leviathan partners agreed with Egyptian buyers to supply about 130 bcm through 2040, worth about $35bn: a first phase of 20 bcm from 2026, and a second of 110 bcm that depends on expanding Leviathan's output. Israel's government approved the export on 17 December 2025. On 28 February 2026, the opening day of the war with Iran, Israel shut the Leviathan and Karish fields as a precaution; Leviathan restarted after about a month. Power shortfalls were reported in Egypt and Jordan, which both import Israeli gas. The same precaution had shut the fields during the June 2025 war.

為何重要

Egypt is a ceasefire guarantor and Gaza's southern neighbour, and it also depends on Israeli gas that Israel switches off when it is attacked. The dependency runs through every regional escalation, and it is one reason Cairo's interest in stability on Israel's fronts is material as well as political.

相關事件

• 伊朗戰爭關閉加薩的過境點，並使以色列的離岸天然氣停產 2026年2月28日 – 4月

  Humanitarian · Energy · Economic

仍然未知的事項

• The supply contract is commercial and unpublished; the volumes and value are those reported at signature.
• Whether Karish restarted after April 2026, and whether the fields were shut again later in the war, is not established.
• The scale of Egypt's dependence relative to its other sources, including liquefied gas imports, is not measured here.

證據同樣支持的其他解讀

• The shutdowns can be read as evidence of Egypt's exposure, or as the reason Egypt diversifies its supply; the record states the dependency and its interruption, not its future weight.

列出這些解讀，是因為該紀錄本身的評估並非其來源所允許的唯一評估 — 而不是對上述評估的保留。