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戰役

以色列的加薩戰爭

一場始於10月7日攻擊的戰爭,自2025年10月起在停火下持續,且尚未結束:以色列控制加薩走廊一半以上的面積,打擊仍在持續。

Since 7 October 2023 加薩

持續進行中
評估截至
2026-10
最後檢視
2026-10-12

評估高信心

提供背景,而非指引目標。戰役紀錄在已發表分析的層級上描述目標、參與方、階段與結果;其中不包含任何當前陣地、兵力對比、部隊位置或兵力規模。

定位圖 — 陸地輪廓取自Natural Earth 110m(公有領域);此紀錄提及的5個地點,標於本模組已公布的座標。圖中未繪製任何路線、邊界、控制範圍或活動。

此戰役是什麼

Israel's war in Gaza since 7 October 2023: an air campaign, a ground manoeuvre across the Strip, two ceasefires and the 2025 offensives. The October 2025 ceasefire left Israel behind a Yellow Line that has since moved west, with strikes continuing and phase two stalled.

Every Gaza instrument the module tracks descends from this war: the Board of Peace and the stabilisation force under Resolution 2803, the Yellow Line, the crossing regime and the humanitarian records. The war also tied the Lebanon front to Gaza from 8 October 2023 and shaped the regional war of 2026. Its present phase is the module's clearest case of a ceasefire that is not a settlement: the fighting has largely stopped, the Israeli-held area has grown, and the sequence of disarmament against withdrawal on which the next phase depends remains unagreed.

信心:高 截至2026-10檢視於2026-10-12

摘要

The Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023, which Hamas calls "Al-Aqsa Flood", killed about 1,200 people in Israel by Israeli figures and took 251 hostages into Gaza. Israel declared a state of war, which it named "Swords of Iron", and after three weeks of air strikes began ground operations on 27 October with the declared aims of destroying Hamas's military and governing capabilities and returning the hostages. In May 2024 Israel took the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor on the Egyptian border. A ceasefire from 19 January 2025 exchanged hostages for prisoners and collapsed on 18 March, when Israel resumed large-scale strikes. Two named offensives followed: "Gideon's Chariots", launched in mid-May 2025, and "Gideon's Chariots II", approved in August and directed at Gaza City from September. The ceasefire under the US 20-point plan took effect on 10 October 2025, with Israeli forces pulled back to a "Yellow Line" that left Israel, by reported estimates, just over half the Strip. The cabinet voted in October 2025 to rename the war the "War of Revival". Since the ceasefire Israeli strikes have continued, the line has moved, and the second phase — Hamas's disarmament, further Israeli withdrawal and the arrival of the International Stabilization Force — has not been implemented.

宣示目標

參與方所說的內容。每一條目都註明立場的提出出處;Vigil記錄的是該立場曾被提出,而非其為真。

經評估的目標

Vigil的解讀,附等級。在結構上與宣示立場分開,因此評估永遠不會被當作某一方的宣示目標發布。

  • Hold ground inside the Strip as the guarantee for the disarmament phase, so that further withdrawal follows verified decommissioning rather than a date.

    信心:中等 來源: International Crisis Group↗ · Al Jazeera English↗

    Consistent with the Board of Peace statement of August 2026 that withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line follows decommissioning, and with the movement of the line since October 2025. Israel's own statements frame the presence as security, not leverage.

主要部隊

對立部隊

  • 卡桑旅 對立部隊 · 信心:高 · 截至2026-10

    Led the 7 October attack and is the force whose disarmament the 2025–2026 instruments address. Its remaining strength is not established in open sources and no figure is carried.

  • 聖城旅(巴勒斯坦伊斯蘭聖戰組織) 對立部隊 · 信心:中等 · 截至2026-10

    Took part in the 7 October attack and held hostages; a smaller force fighting alongside Hamas's armed wing rather than under it.

支援方與外部方

  • 加薩師(第143師) Supporting force · Confidence: High · as of 2026-10

    The standing territorial division on the Gaza perimeter, overrun in places on 7 October 2023; manoeuvre divisions have rotated through the Strip alongside it.

  • 第36師 Supporting force · Confidence: High · as of 2025-09

    Named in IDF press releases in northern Gaza in November 2023, in Rafah and Khan Younis from April to May 2025, and entering the Gaza City area in September 2025 under Gideon's Chariots II. Its attachment varies by period.

  • 第98師 支援部隊 · 信心:中等 · 截至2024-08

    Named by the IDF as leading the Khan Younis operation until April 2024, and reported back in Khan Younis from July 2024. Later attachments are not authored here.

  • 第162師 支援部隊 · 信心:中等 · 截至2024-08

    Named by the IDF as continuing operations in the Strip in April 2024 and reported leading the Rafah operations through mid-2024. Later attachments are not authored here.

  • 以色列空軍 Supporting force · Confidence: High · as of 2026-10

    The air campaign preceded the ground manoeuvre and strikes have continued under the October 2025 ceasefire. No strike-target detail is carried.

階段

2023年10月 信心:高

The 7 October attack and the air campaign

Hamas-led armed groups broke through the Gaza perimeter on 7 October 2023 and attacked communities, military posts and a music festival; Israeli figures put the dead at about 1,200 and the hostages at 251. Israel declared a state of war and began an air campaign across the Strip, with an evacuation order for northern Gaza.

來源: Israeli government statements and documents (PMO, MFA, Ministry of Defense)↗ · Reuters↗ · Associated Press↗

27 October 2023 – April 2024 信心:高

The ground manoeuvre

Ground operations began on 27 October 2023 in the north of the Strip and extended to Khan Younis in the south. A week-long truce in late November 2023 exchanged hostages for prisoners. Most of Gaza's population was displaced in the course of the war.

來源: Israel Defense Forces — Spokesperson's Unit announcements↗ · UN OCHA occupied Palestinian territory — humanitarian reporting and data↗ · Reuters↗ · Established historical record

2024年5月 信心:高

Rafah and the Philadelphi corridor

Israeli forces took the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing in early May 2024 and controlled the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border by the end of the month — the first Israeli control of that border since 2005, and a recurring term in every later ceasefire negotiation.

來源: Israel Defense Forces — Spokesperson's Unit announcements↗ · Reuters↗ · Al Jazeera English↗

May – October 2025 信心:高

Gideon's Chariots and Gideon's Chariots II

The security cabinet approved "Gideon's Chariots" on 4 May 2025; it opened with a strike wave on 16 May and a ground operation announced on 18 May. "Gideon's Chariots II", directed at Gaza City, was approved on 19 or 20 August (sources differ) and the ground push into the city began in September. The IPC confirmed famine in Gaza Governorate on 22 August, which Israel rejected. The offensive ended with the October ceasefire.

來源: Israel Defense Forces — Spokesperson's Unit announcements↗ · FDD's Long War Journal↗ · IPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip↗

10 October 2025 – ongoing 信心:高

The October 2025 ceasefire and the Yellow Line

The ceasefire under the US 20-point plan took effect on 10 October 2025 as Israeli forces pulled back to a "Yellow Line", an Israeli military designation that by reported estimates left Israel just over half the Strip. All living hostages were released by 13 October. Resolution 2803 endorsed the plan in November. Israeli strikes have continued, both sides allege violations, and the line has moved: Israel's prime minister directed in May 2026 that control reach 70 per cent, and independent estimates put it at around two-thirds. Gaza's crossings were shut at the opening of the Iran war on 28 February 2026, and the Board of Peace published a disarmament roadmap on 30 July 2026 that Israel has not signed.

來源: US government statements and documents on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon · UN Security Council resolutions, Secretary-General reports and meeting records (Levant)↗ · Reuters↗ · Al Jazeera English↗ · UN OCHA occupied Palestinian territory — humanitarian reporting and data↗

結果與目前狀態

Ongoing under a ceasefire. Since 10 October 2025 the large-scale fighting has stopped, the hostages have been returned, and Israeli forces hold an area behind the Yellow Line that has grown from about half the Strip to around two-thirds by independent estimates, while Israeli strikes continue. The Ministry of Health in Gaza reports more than 70,000 people killed since 7 October 2023 as of 2026, a count that does not distinguish combatants and that Israeli officials dispute. Neither the disarmament of Hamas nor further Israeli withdrawal has begun, and the International Stabilization Force has not deployed.

觀察到的調整

政治意涵

The second phase falls to the government formed after Israel's election of 27 October 2026, and Gaza's interim administration under the Board of Peace has not yet established itself inside the Strip.

軍事意涵

The disarmament-for-withdrawal sequence is unagreed, so the Israeli-held area is the settled fact on the ground and the line, not the text, sets the present terms.

人道意涵

OCHA reports about 65 per cent of Gaza's land under access restrictions as of October 2026, and one cargo crossing in operation; reconstruction cannot begin at scale while the line and the access regime stand.

仍然未知的事項

  • The Sharm el-Sheikh first-phase protocol and its withdrawal map have not been published; the Yellow Line's extent rests on reported estimates and Israeli statements, and the module does not draw it.
  • The exact date of the cabinet vote renaming the war the "War of Revival" in October 2025 is not confirmed.
  • Hamas's and Palestinian Islamic Jihad's remaining strength is not established in open sources.
  • Fatality figures are carried only as each issuer's own count and are never combined.

證據同樣支持的其他解讀

  • The movement of the Yellow Line can be read as leverage for the disarmament negotiation, as a security buffer intended to last, or as the absence of a decided Israeli end-state before the election. The observed conduct is consistent with each.

列出這些解讀,是因為該紀錄本身的評估並非其來源所允許的唯一評估 — 而不是對上述評估的保留。

此戰役涉及的Watch問題

證據經由此戰役的常設分析問題,各附最新一次檢視。內容衍生自Watch物件,從不在此重述。

在探索中檢視執行此戰役的部隊 互動式:選取此紀錄並追蹤與其關聯的內容。

評估截至 — 2026-10 最近檢視 — 2026-10-12

相關紀錄

此戰役所提及、或提及此戰役的紀錄共19筆——每一筆都是已發布紀錄中的明確引用,沒有任何一筆是依主題推斷而來。

所經地形1