自Zikim於2026年5月24日關閉以來，每一條進入加薩的援助走廊都終止於克瑞沙洛；那裡的卸貨量每週大幅波動，軍民兩用庇護物資也設有上限。冬季庇護僅涵蓋有需要的294,250個家庭中的約52,000個。服務能力繫於這一條物流，此一判斷屬合理可信。
為人道與政策讀者撰寫：它將安全狀況與平民所受的影響連結起來，並不意味任何作戰層面的協調。
如何解讀等級
- 已證實 有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 合理可信的曝險 Vigil評估為很可能的機制；尚無其已經發生的紀錄。
- 未經證實的情境 因為值得觀察而列出。並非斷言。
一個步驟的等級永遠不能高於它所依賴的步驟：結果的確立程度不能高於其原因。這項規則在本網站建置時強制執行，而非以人工套用 — 違反它的鏈會導致建置失敗，而不會被發布。
- 觸發因素
自2026年5月24日起，克瑞沙洛是唯一運作中的加薩貨運過境點
- 受影響的地區或系統已證實
Since Zikim closed "until further notice" on 24 May 2026, OCHA (25 September and 2 October 2026) and Gisha (8 October 2026) record Kerem Shalom as the only operational cargo crossing into Gaza. Every UN and partner aid corridor — from Egypt, from Jordan, through Ashdod and from Israel — converges there, alongside commercial cargo and fuel. The inputs Gaza's humanitarian services run on therefore enter through one gate: food parcels and flour, tents, tarpaulins and other shelter items, and medicines and medical consumables. OCHA notes that the UN can only confirm entry of supplies tracked by the UN2720 mechanism.
有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 通行或服務中斷已證實
The flow through that gate is irregular and filtered. OCHA, citing the Logistics Cluster, reported offloading at Kerem Shalom of 77 per cent in 31 August–6 September 2026 (from 88 per cent), 52 per cent in 14–20 September (from 70 per cent) and 88 per cent in 21–27 September — route performance, not volumes. The Norwegian Refugee Council, citing the Shelter Cluster on 5 October 2026, says tents, tarpaulins, timber, tools and rope are classified dual-use, that cement, timber and metal sheeting are blocked, that dual-use shelter items can be offloaded at Kerem Shalom only one day a week, and that dual-use items from Jordan are capped at 15 trucks a week across all humanitarian sectors — an NGO's account; Israel's current list is not published. OCHA (11 September 2026) reported that Israel denied the International Organization for Migration about 37,000 pieces of timber and 660 shelter kits, rejected at Kerem Shalom on 26 August and 2 September, "reportedly for security reasons".
有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 平民狀況已證實
Winter shelter is the condition whose link to the crossing its source calculates. The Shelter Cluster, relayed by NRC on 5 October 2026, counts 294,250 families needing shelter assistance for winter 2026–27, with stocks and pipeline covering about 52,000 families, and at least 500 dual-use shelter truckloads waiting; at 15 trucks a week, NRC calculates, their entry would take more than seven months. OCHA (25 September 2026) put stocks at about 17,000 tents, tarpaulins and sealing-off kits, enough for about 50,000 households. The Shelter Cluster also reports 65 per cent of households living in tents or makeshift shelters (August 2026), and the winter response funded at US$96.2m of US$283m (34 per cent) — a constraint separate from the crossing.
有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 平民狀況合理可信的曝險
Food assistance and medical supply are short, but their sources do not attribute the shortfall to the crossing. OCHA, citing the Food Security Sector, reports that in September 2026 parcels reached 220,000 households (more than 840,000 people) at 35 distribution points, one parcel and one 25 kg bag of flour covering about 50 per cent of minimum caloric needs; the Sector warned of "significant reductions" in meals and parcels from October, a pipeline warning rather than an observed cut. The latest medicines percentage found is the Gaza Ministry of Health's, relayed by WHO on 4 March 2026 — 46 per cent of essential medicines and 66 per cent of medical consumables at zero stock — which predates the single-crossing period; OCHA (25 September 2026) names current shortages of chemotherapy and radiotherapy supplies, dialysis cartridges and insulin analogues. Graded plausible: the conditions are documented, their dependence on the crossing is not.
Vigil評估為很可能的機制；尚無其已經發生的紀錄。
- 更廣泛的人道意義合理可信的曝險
Vigil's reading is that, with one cargo crossing, Gaza's humanitarian service capacity — rations, winter shelter and medical supply together — depends on the irregular flow through Kerem Shalom and on the item rules applied there, so a closure day or a change to the dual-use cap would reach every sector at once. Graded plausible: the sources document the single crossing, the weekly swings in offloading and the shelter backlog, but none separates the share of the food or medicine shortfall caused by the crossing from funding, pipeline, distribution and market factors, and no volume series exists against which to measure the flow. The fuel and water inputs that pass the same gate are the chain levant-gaza-fuel-water.
Vigil評估為很可能的機制；尚無其已經發生的紀錄。
受影響的平民狀況
以一般標籤命名，而非受控詞彙，因此這份清單不會與本模組經濟部分已使用的商品名稱產生偏差。
仍然未知的事項
- No current volume series exists: Gisha (8 October 2026) reports that COGAT stopped publishing goods-entry data after the ceasefire, and OCHA's offloading percentages measure route performance, not tonnage or truckloads. The only official threshold is the commitment to 4,200 trucks a week, humanitarian and commercial with fuel included, in S/2026/418 (15 May 2026).
- Israel's current dual-use list is not published; the classification and the 15-truck cap come from NRC's account.
- No medicines zero-stock percentage after March 2026 was found; WHO's regional director said in May that "more than half" were out of stock.
- Kerem Shalom's operating days are available only from the Gaza Crossings and Borders Authority, via a tertiary compilation (open five of seven days, 2–8 October 2026); no Israeli schedule was found.
- Reports that traders may import some dual-use items aid agencies may not are unverified; no primary source was located.
證據同樣支持的其他解讀
- Shortfalls may be driven as much by funding and pipeline as by the crossing: the winter shelter response was 34 per cent funded, and the Food Security Sector's October warning concerns its own pipeline.
- Israel presents its item restrictions as security controls; Israeli leaders have said there will be no rebuilding before disarmament, and the IOM denial was reported as made for security reasons. Aid agencies describe the same rules as restrictions on humanitarian supply. Both readings are attributed.
- Distribution inside Gaza is a separate constraint: OCHA recorded at least five requests by the de facto authorities to search UN warehouses between 25 August and 9 September 2026, with no contraband found.
列出這些解讀，是因為該紀錄本身的評估並非其來源所允許的唯一評估 — 而不是對上述評估的保留。
第二條貨物過境點投入運作（候選）
OCHA不再將克瑞沙洛描述為唯一運作中的貨物過境點——Zikim重新開放，或Erez如所宣布、但尚未落實地開放貨物通行。
軍民兩用上限與冬季庇護缺口（候選）
來自約旦的每週15車次軍民兩用上限的任何變化，以及Shelter Cluster在2026–27年冬季期間對照294,250所統計的受涵蓋家庭數。
10月警告之後的糧食包涵蓋率（候選）
OCHA的每月糧食包與餐食數字是否顯示Food Security Sector所警告的削減，以及其報告是否將該過境點列為原因之一。
此影響鏈涉及的Watch問題
證據經由此影響鏈的常設分析問題，各附最新一次檢視。內容衍生自Watch物件，從不在此重述。
在探索中開啟互動式：選取此紀錄並追蹤與其關聯的內容。
評估截至 — 2026-10-08 最近檢視 — 2026-10-12