伊朗與海灣 → 中國與海灣

摘要

Iran's crude exports are concentrated on Chinese buyers to a degree that has no parallel elsewhere in this module: reporting places the share at around ninety per cent, moving largely through independent refiners rather than the major state companies. The dependence is Iran's, and the direction of this record says so. It is what allows Iranian export revenue to persist under reimposed United Nations and United States measures, and it is why the United States has extended designations to Chinese refiners. China is simultaneously a major buyer of Gulf Arab crude and of Qatari LNG, which is why its behaviour in this system has not tracked either side: it did not block the March 2026 resolution condemning attacks on the Gulf states, and in April it vetoed a draft on safeguarding shipping through the strait.

為何重要

Sanctions bind only as far as the largest buyer allows. This relationship is the reason the module treats the sanctions architecture as a structure with a ceiling rather than as a lever with a predictable effect.

相關事件

• 美國退出聯合全面行動計畫（JCPOA） 2018年5月8日

  Diplomatic · Sanctions

所依賴的系統

正式的後勤紀錄。它們載有此關係所依據、但不在此重述的走廊、節點、依賴與中斷歷史。

仍然未知的事項

• The ninety per cent share rests on commercial tracking and reporting, not on published trade statistics, and Iranian export volumes are themselves disputed: the Congressional Research Service records exports exceeding two million barrels a day in early March 2026 while a commercial tracker gives 1.65 to 1.80 million for the same period. Neither figure is treated as verified.
• Claims that China has supplied Iran with navigation, radar or electronic-warfare support are attributed to unnamed experts in commentary and have no primary confirmation. They are not authored anywhere in this module, and this record makes no security claim.