亞美尼亞 → 歐亞經濟聯盟

摘要

Armenia joined the Eurasian Economic Union on 2 January 2015, after abandoning an EU association and free-trade agreement in September 2013 in favour of the Russian-led customs union. Membership gives it a common external tariff set by the Eurasian Economic Commission, duty-free access to the single market — Russia above all — and the right of its citizens to work in member states without permits. It also rules things out: under the Treaty, free-trade regimes with third parties are concluded by the Union, not by its members, which is why the EU partnership agreement Armenia signed in 2017 has no free-trade chapter. Armenia legislated in 2025 to begin an EU accession process, and on 24 August 2026 its prime minister said an application may be made soon. The other four members' answer came first: on 29 May 2026 their presidents called for an Armenian referendum on the EU or the Union, and commissioned a report for the December 2026 Supreme Council on suspending the Treaty's application to Armenia. Armenia has not joined that statement, has lodged no withdrawal, attends the Union's councils and has used its complaint procedure against Russia's 2026 restrictions on Armenian produce.

為何重要

It is the institution through which most of Russia's economic leverage over Armenia is organised. The market Russia restricted in 2026 is the Union's single market, restricted under the Treaty's own sanitary exceptions; the duty-free gas regime Russia threatened in May was agreed as Armenia entered the customs union; and work without permits in Russia is a Union right. Leaving would be Armenia's decision, on twelve months' notice — but what it would cost is set by what membership currently carries, and the December council is the first dated point at which the other members could act.

協議

• Treaty on the accession of the Republic of Armenia to the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union · 簽署於2014-10-10

  In force for Armenia from 2 January 2015. Its annexes set temporary exemptions from the common external tariff, since expired; the exact lines are not carried here.

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仍然未知的事項

• The Treaty provides for withdrawal on a member's own written notice, taking effect twelve months later (Article 118), and contains no procedure for suspending or expelling a member. How the suspension named in the Astana statement would be effected has not been stated by any member.
• The notice period is recorded from the Treaty: twelve months (Article 118). Armenia's prime minister said on 3 September 2026 that a member must notify the Union six months before deciding; that is his statement, carried as attributed, and no official material has been found that explains the difference.
• No finding by the Eurasian Economic Commission on Armenia's complaint about the Russian restrictions has been reported, and no case before the Union's court has been found.
• Whether Armenia would remain inside the customs union while negotiating with the EU, or what order it would take the two steps in, has not been stated beyond the prime minister's remark that a referendum would follow an application.

證據同樣支持的其他解讀

• Armenia's continued participation can be read as a deliberate choice to keep the Union's benefits until the EU track offers something to replace them, or as the absence of any alternative on the timescale of the dispute. The behaviour is the same under both readings, and so is the outcome: the decision to end the membership has been left to the other side.

列出這些解讀，是因為該紀錄本身的評估並非其來源所允許的唯一評估 — 而不是對上述評估的保留。