VIGIL CONSILIUM
Context, not headlines
PUBLIC ALPHAEvolving coverage — see the methodology and the corrections log.
Branch

Air Force

The fixed-wing combat arm within the Aerospace Forces — fighter, strike, army, transport and long-range aviation.

Moscow-alignedAirFixed-wing combat aviation component

Broad area of activity

Operating from Russian airspace across the theatre.

Notable history

Failed to suppress Ukrainian air defences in 2022 and was pushed back from the front; adapted with mass standoff attack — above all the UMPK glide-bomb campaign carried by Su-34s from 2023 — while suffering publicly documented losses of scarce special-mission aircraft in 2024.

Strengths

Airframe and munitions mass; the glide-bomb adaptation converted a stalemated air war into persistent battlefield pressure at low risk.

Limitations

Still no air superiority after years of war; vulnerable to air-defence ambushes; attrition of crews and of scarce enablers like AEW&C aircraft.

Subordinate & associated

Key events

2024Supporting forcehigh confidence

Avdiivka falls; Kursk incursion

Russia takes Avdiivka at heavy cost and presses in Donbas; Ukraine answers with a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region.

Sensitivity: Public · structuralAssessment confidence: highStatus as of 2026-07Reviewed 2026-07Sources: ISW campaign assessments · RUSI component and capability analyses · Established international media reporting · IISS Military BalanceMethodology