Force Atlas

Russian military presence — Syria

Группировка ВС России в Сирии

RUSSIA · EXTERNAL

External powers Active
Assessed as of
2026-08
Reviewed
2026-09-09
Confidence
moderate
  • State affiliation · Russia
  • Vigil category device · not official insignia
Identity provenance

State affiliation: Russia.

Vigil category device — drawn from this record’s own domain, echelon and role. Not an official insignia.

In brief

Russia's remaining publicly documented presence — the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval facility, hubs of the 2015–2024 intervention — whose future the memorandum of 9 August 2026 settled: civilian facilities to Syrian management, military ones repurposed as joint training centres within three months. Broad structural level only; no current dispositions represented.

Scope
Structure, role, lineage and links. 2 subordinate records published.
Subordination
Subordination confirmed
Sources
4 on the record
Record state
Partial
Broad area of activity
Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval facility, at structural level only
Notable history
Russia intervened in September 2015 to save the Assad government and built two facilities to do it — the air base at Khmeimim, from which its campaign was flown, and the naval facility at Tartus, its only Mediterranean foothold — both extended by agreement to the 2060s. When the government fell in December 2024 the forces contracted onto the two sites and Moscow opened a negotiation with the transitional government it had bombed until days before. After eighteen months, Syria announced on 9 August 2026 a memorandum of understanding: the Syrian state takes over the civilian facilities, Khmeimim's airport and the commercial berth at Tartus among them, and the military facilities are repurposed as joint training and qualification centres under arrangements preserving both sides' interests, with the transition to be completed within three months. The presence therefore survives, in a form that is not a base.
Strengths
A negotiated survival where expulsion was possible, and infrastructure that a decade of expeditionary operations built.
Limitations
A presence without a purpose since the government it served fell, on terms that convert bases into training centres, in a state that rehabilitates airfields for Türkiye and negotiates with Israel. The post-memorandum configuration is not yet observable, and this record should be revisited once the three months have run.

Subordinate formations

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Reported & historical equipment associations

Su-34: Characteristic of the 2015–2024 air campaign; historical capability context, not a current inventory claim.

Related organisations

  • Syrian state forces (Ministry of Defence) Cooperated with · as of 2026-08 · moderate confidence

    A working relationship confined to the two facilities, settled in outline by the memorandum of 9 August 2026 — civilian facilities to Syrian management, military ones as joint training centres — after eighteen months of negotiation with a government Russia's forces bombed until December 2024. The implementing arrangements and the resulting configuration are not yet observable, which keeps the grade at moderate.

Campaigns

Campaigns naming this organisation as a participant. The campaign record owns the relationship and grades it; this list is computed.

  • The offensive that ended the Assad era Affected party · Nov – Dec 2024 · high confidence · as of 2024-12

    The intervention that saved the government in 2015 did not repeat in 2024. Its bases became the subject of a negotiation with the government that replaced its client.

Key events

9 August 2026high confidence

Syria and Russia settle the future of Khmeimim and Tartus

The Syrian Foreign Ministry announced on 9 August 2026 a memorandum of understanding with Russia on the two bases, after eighteen months of negotiation: the Syrian state takes over management of the civilian facilities, including Khmeimim airport and the commercial berth at Tartus, and the military facilities are to be repurposed as joint training and qualification centres under arrangements preserving both sides' interests, with the transition to be completed within three months.

7 Sep 2026; reported 14 – 15 Sepmoderate confidence

The first Russian resupply of the coastal facilities under the August memorandum

A four-vessel Russian group reached Tartus on 7 September 2026 — the destroyer Admiral Levchenko, the cargo ship Sparta, the replenishment oiler Akademik Pashin and the products tanker General Skobelev, the last of which remained offshore. Reuters verified by satellite imagery that the Sparta and the Akademik Pashin were alongside at Tartus, and tracked the movement with a maritime intelligence firm; the vessels' tracking signals were switched off. A Syrian military source and a Russian-Syrian businessman familiar with the operation said the Sparta unloaded supplies including ammunition intended for Khmeimim and Tartus. Reuters stated that it could not independently verify the contents of the shipment or its destination. It is the first such mission reported since the memorandum of understanding of 9 August 2026, under which the civilian facilities pass to Syrian management and the military ones are to become joint training and qualification centres within three months. The reporting appeared on 14 and 15 September, after the previous Weekly Brief's cutoff.

Sensitivity: Public · structural Confidence: Moderate Sources: Reuters↗ · Al Jazeera English↗ · The Moscow Times↗ · Established historical record Methodology Corrections

Assessed as of — 2026-08 Last reviewed — 2026-09-09

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Watch questions this formation bears on

Standing analytical questions whose evidence runs through this formation, each with its latest review. Derived from the Watch object, never restated here.

  • MilitaryDo Russia's bases stay?Movement
    1. 2026-08-30: No material change
    2. 2026-09-06: No material change
    3. 2026-09-13: No material change
    4. 2026-09-20: Movement observed
    5. 2026-09-27: Assessment changed
    6. 2026-10-04: No material change
    7. 2026-10-11: No material change
    8. 2026-10-18: Movement observed

Connected records

4 records that this organisation names, or that name it — every one an explicit reference in a published record, nothing inferred from subject matter.

Commanded or sponsored by1

Actor records that name this organisation.

Participates in1

Campaigns whose participant list names this organisation.