What happened
Azerbaijan launches a full offensive and wins in 44 days — Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, Israeli loitering munitions and artillery mass against entrenched Armenian defences, culminating in the fall of Shusha (Shushi). Several thousand die on each side; Azerbaijan recovers the seven surrounding districts and part of the former NKAO.
The war ended the post-1994 order, previewed the drone-centric warfare Ukraine would generalise, made Türkiye a formal party to the region's security, and reduced Russian primacy to a peacekeeping mandate it would fail to honour.
Confidence: High
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