Russia recognises Abkhazia and South Ossetia

What happened

Two weeks after the ceasefire, Russia recognises both breakaway regions as independent states and signs basing agreements with each. Only a handful of states follow; the rest of the world continues to recognise both as part of Georgia.

Recognition ended the ambiguity of the 1990s formats: Russian troops in both entities became a declared, permanent presence, and the entities themselves became dependencies whose "independence" is indistinguishable from alignment. It also broke, deliberately, the taboo Russia had itself defended over Kosovo.

Confidence: High