What happened
Protests in Sukhumi against an investment agreement signed with Russia in October 2024 — which would have extended preferences to Russian companies across tourism, agriculture, transport and gas supply — force the de facto parliament to abandon ratification and precipitate the resignation of de facto president Aslan Bzhania in November 2024. Badra Gunba serves as acting president, wins the election held in February and March 2025, and takes office on 2 April 2025, having said in Moscow that the entity was prepared to reconsider the agreement's format. Russia restores electricity supply in February 2025 and transfers funds for public-sector salaries.
The clearest evidence available that the two Georgian entities are not the same case. Abkhazia refused terms that South Ossetia would accept in a more far-reaching form a year later, and the refusal cost it electricity and budget support until a leadership acceptable to Moscow was in place. It establishes both the limit of Abkhaz resistance — the entity cannot fund or power itself — and the fact that resistance exists at all, which is why this module does not describe Russian integration of the two as a single process.
Confidence: Moderate
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