Israel collects the customs and VAT that make up about two-thirds of PA revenue, and since May 2025 has transferred none, per the World Bank. The PA says it needs about NIS 1.5bn a month and has NIS 800–850m; salaries run months late. Pressure on PA institutions is plausible, not established.
為地緣政治風險與經濟曝險工作撰寫：它追溯的是一項機制，而非市場觀點。
如何解讀等級
- 已證實 有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 合理可信的曝險 Vigil評估為很可能的機制；尚無其已經發生的紀錄。
- 未經證實的情境 因為值得觀察而列出。並非斷言。
一個步驟的等級永遠不能高於它所依賴的步驟：結果的確立程度不能高於其原因。這項規則在本網站建置時強制執行，而非以人工套用 — 違反它的鏈會導致建置失敗，而不會被發布。
- 觸發因素
以色列扣留與扣減巴勒斯坦自治政府的清關稅收
- 受影響的資產、路線或地區已證實
Under the 1994 Paris Protocol Israel collects VAT, customs and purchase tax on goods bound for the Palestinian territories and transfers them monthly to the PA as clearance revenue, less a 3 per cent handling fee (MAS, July 2026, restating the Protocol; the Protocol text was not re-read in this pass). Clearance is the PA's largest revenue stream: "around two-thirds" of public revenue according to MAS (July 2026), and "about 70 per cent" of public income according to PA Finance Minister Estephan Salameh (12 February 2026). Salameh put 2025 clearance revenue collected at NIS 10.293bn, of which NIS 1.951bn was transferred, all in January–April 2025 — the PA's account.
有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 營運中斷已證實
Deductions have been layered on the transfer, each with its own basis. Under the 2018 Freezing Law, applied from 2019, Israel freezes each month one-twelfth of what it determines the PA paid the previous year to prisoners and their families; monthly freezes under it ranged NIS 39.3m–102.6m in 2023–2026 and were NIS 40.7m in May 2026 (MAS, citing PA Finance Ministry monthly reports). From November 2023 Israel has also withheld an amount equal to PA spending in Gaza, NIS 275m a month (MAS). The World Bank's May 2026 report states that clearance revenue has been "suspended completely since May 2025" (MAS dates it from June 2025; Vigil keeps the Bank's month). Israeli Finance Ministry statements continue to describe a monthly collect–deduct–freeze cycle: on 27 April 2026 it reported collecting more than NIS 740m that month, deducting about NIS 590m against PA debts to Israel Electric Corporation, water and environmental bodies, and freezing the remainder (Israeli statement as relayed by Anadolu reporting). On 8 June 2026 the Knesset passed an amendment to the 2018 Freezing Law (bill no. 1124, published 10 June 2026, per the Knesset Shkufa tracker; the English title is a translation) under which a ministerial committee sets an additional yearly deduction; no amount has yet been set under it. The PA Finance Ministry described September 2026 as the 17th consecutive month of withholding (WAFA, 27 September 2026).
有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 曝險的產業或商品已證實
What is exposed is PA liquidity and, through it, public salaries and payments to suppliers and banks. Salameh said on 27 September 2026 that the PA needs about NIS 1.5bn a month and has NIS 800–850m available for partial salaries and basic services. The World Bank records wages paid at 50–70 per cent of the commitment basis through 2025 and a flat NIS 2,000 for January 2026, paid three months late. The June 2026 salary was paid on 23 September 2026 with a NIS 2,000 minimum, per the PA Finance Ministry via WAFA. The World Bank put end-2025 arrears at $2.85bn to employees and $1.82bn to suppliers and public debt at $4.8bn; MAS, citing the PA Finance Ministry's May 2026 accounts, gives arrears of about NIS 20.5bn and public debt of about NIS 14.2bn, mostly owed to Palestinian banks. The two series use different bases and dates and are not combined.
有來源記錄其已經發生。
- 更廣泛的經濟意義合理可信的曝險
Vigil's assessment is that prolonged withholding places sustained pressure on the PA's capacity to function as an institution — to pay the security services, teachers and health workers it employs, and to service the domestic banks that hold its debt. This is graded plausible, not confirmed: partial salaries measure fiscal stress, not institutional failure, and the PA continues to operate on donor support the World Bank put at $938m in 2025. The decisions that would change the mechanism — the first yearly deduction under the June 2026 amendment, and any resumption of transfers — fall to the Israeli government formed after the 27 October 2026 election. The standing relationship is levant-pa-israel-clearance-dependency.
Vigil評估為很可能的機制；尚無其已經發生的紀錄。
曝險的產業與商品
以一般標籤命名，而非受控詞彙，因此這份清單不會與本模組經濟部分已使用的商品名稱產生偏差。
仍然未知的事項
- The withheld totals are not reconciled and are not comparable: about NIS 13bn (Salameh, 12 February 2026); about NIS 14bn (Haaretz, 6 May 2026); net withholding above NIS 13bn by May 2026, excluding separate deductions, with about NIS 2.7bn withheld January–May 2026 (MAS calculation on PA data, July 2026); about $7bn (PLO Executive Committee, 10 October 2026). The World Bank publishes no total.
- The amendment's bill reference and provisions come from the Knesset Shkufa tracker, a civic presentation of Knesset data; the Reshumot text has not been read, and the English title is a translation.
- The PA Finance Ministry's announcement of the June 2026 salary gives the percentage paid inconsistently (headline and body differ); only the payment date and the NIS 2,000 minimum are used.
- Whether the Norwegian holding arrangement for the Gaza share still operates after the January 2025 transfer is not established.
證據同樣支持的其他解讀
- Israel's Finance Ministry presents the deductions and freezes as responses to PA payments to prisoners' families and to its moves in international institutions; the PA and donors describe them as collective financial pressure. The PA abolished sentence-linked payments in February 2025, which Israel and the United States called insufficient. Both readings are attributed.
- How much of the PA's shortfall is due to withholding is itself contested. Salameh put the 2025 deficit at more than NIS 4.5bn against under NIS 400m had clearance flowed (12 February 2026) — the PA's attribution of nearly all of it to withholding. The World Bank states its 2025 financing gap after Israeli deductions and does not apportion causes.
列出這些解讀，是因為該紀錄本身的評估並非其來源所允許的唯一評估 — 而不是對上述評估的保留。
任何一個月有非零的清關稅收移轉進入巴勒斯坦自治政府帳戶
The only observable that would show the suspension reported by the World Bank since May 2025 has ended — a PA or Israeli Finance Ministry statement of an actual transfer, not a collection or deduction figure.
依2026年6月修正案設定的第一筆年度扣款
The amendment creates the mechanism but no amount; the first determination falls to the next Israeli government.
每次巴勒斯坦自治政府薪資發放的比例與延遲
Announced by the PA Finance Ministry through WAFA; the most frequent public measure of the liquidity squeeze.
此影響鏈涉及的Watch問題
證據經由此影響鏈的常設分析問題，各附最新一次檢視。內容衍生自Watch物件，從不在此重述。
在探索中開啟互動式：選取此紀錄並追蹤與其關聯的內容。
評估截至 — 2026-10-10 最近檢視 — 2026-10-12