發生了什麼
關於荷莫茲海峽航行的部長級會議——由伊朗、伊拉克以及除巴林以外的海灣合作委員會國家參加，由阿曼在Salalah召集，先後宣布於2026年9月14日與16日舉行——在9月13日夜間延期，未定新日期。報導將延期歸因於沙烏地的要求，以及沙烏地對伊朗–阿曼草案措辭所提出的修正，利雅德擔心這些措辭會確立新的現狀。依所描述的內容，草案將在海峽設立臨時航運走廊，入境經由伊朗水域，出境大致經由阿曼水域，並就航行、環境保護與救援收取自願性通行費，先提交參與國，再提交國際海事組織登記。伊朗外交部表示，將與阿曼協商決定如何宣布或登記該協議，並強調此安排不構成海峽的重新開放。目前未公布任何文本。
THE 13 SEPTEMBER BRIEF NAMED THIS MEETING AS THE LIVE TEST OF THE COMMERCIAL CONDITION, AND THE TEST DID NOT RUN. That is the finding, and it is worth more than a communiqué would have been, because the reason for the postponement is itself the substance: the obstacle is not whether ships can pass but whose legal account of the water an instrument would endorse. A bilateral corridor scheme registered at the IMO would be the first document since March to describe how the strait is used, and a Gulf state that did not draft it reads that as a status quo being written down. What the module records is therefore a stage not reached, not a process failing — a postponement with no date is not a collapse, and Iran's own statement that this would not reopen the strait removes the reading that the meeting was about restoring traffic in the first place. Nothing here touches the commercial condition: no cover was written, no rate was taken up, and the observable remains what it was.
信心：中等
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