胡塞組織奪取紅海南部海岸並抵達曼德海峽

發生了什麼

胡塞組織於9月10日拂曉奪取位於曼德海峽以北約75公里的摩卡港，並在隨後一天內奪取再往南約46公里的Dhubab、其後方的沿海村莊、海峽中的Perim（Mayyun）島，以及Hanish群島中的Zuqar——這是葉門紅海海岸最後一段由政府控制的地帶。報導形容結果是整段海岸線落入胡塞組織手中；目前未讀到經獨立查證的控制線。總統領導委員會副主席Tareq Saleh表示，他已下令進行戰略撤退，並在與阿拉伯聯軍司令部協商後成立替代指揮中心以重整部隊。報導指出，仍有一支政府部隊（一份說法稱逾兩千人）位於Hanish群島。該組織聲稱控制六個地區與5,400平方公里。一名胡塞政治局成員表示，紅海與曼德海峽的航行與貿易安全有序，例外仍是沙烏地的航運；一名胡塞指揮官則表示，隨著摩卡失守，該海峽可被視為處於該組織的管理之下。Al Jazeera報導，胡塞組織並未正式宣布控制該海峽。

PHYSICAL ACCESS TO THE STRAIT CHANGED HANDS; PASSAGE THROUGH IT DID NOT CLOSE, and this module keeps the two apart. Bab el-Mandeb has the Djiboutian and Eritrean shores opposite, and the wider of its two channels lies west of Perim. What the advance establishes is presence on the Yemeni side of the outlet that Saudi Arabia's east–west pipeline delivers to. What it does not establish is interdiction: no independently observed interference with non-Saudi shipping from the new positions has been read, and reporting of a sharp fall in transits on 10 September is a change in what shipowners chose to do, not evidence of an act against a vessel. FOUR THINGS STAY APART IN THIS RECORD: a stated intention to retake the ground, which government field commanders have expressed; operational preparation, which the vice chairman's regroup order is; a counteroffensive, which has not been reported; and a territorial reversal, of which none is established.

信心：中等