Russie — Ukraine

Synthèse

The relationship's modern shape was set in 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and armed the separatist entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, and in the Minsk agreements that froze rather than resolved that war. The full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022 failed to take Kyiv, took and lost ground in the south and east through 2022–23, and settled into a drone-saturated attrition along a front of over a thousand kilometres. Russia declared the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in September 2022 and holds most of the first two and part of the second two; Ukraine's constitution and stated policy require the restoration of its 1991 borders, and it has struck deep into Russia — refineries, export terminals, the Black Sea Fleet — since 2023. A United States-led negotiating push began in November 2025 around a 28-point plan Ukraine and its European allies read as reproducing Russia's maximalist demands; trilateral talks in Geneva in February 2026 and further rounds through the spring produced no ceasefire, and the capitals-only strike pause of 5–8 September 2026 lasted exactly as long as it was written for. Russia continues to require Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas; Ukraine continues to seek security guarantees with a United States backstop. Vigil records the war's shape and the negotiation's state, and characterises neither side's war aims beyond what each has said.

Pourquoi c’est important

This is the relationship every Watch question in the module measures movement against — force regeneration, air-defence supply, energy resilience, refining under strike, the negotiating architecture — and the reference case for how Vigil records an interstate war: as a standing adversarial relationship with a territorial dispute inside it, not as a front line.

Accords

• Minsk II (Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements) · signé le 2015-02-12 · ended 2022-02-22

  The instrument that froze the Donbas war; Russia's recognition of the two separatist entities on 21 February 2022 and the invasion three days later ended it. Recorded as the last signed bilateral framework.

• Black Sea Grain Initiative · signé le 2022-07-22 · ended 2023-07-17

  The UN- and Türkiye-brokered export arrangement, the one wartime instrument both parties signed; Russia withdrew in July 2023 and Ukraine has since run its own corridor.

• Capitals-only strike pause · signé le 2026-09-05 · ended 2026-09-08

  A three-day pause covering the two capitals, agreed through the negotiating track and observed for its stated duration; nothing replaced it.

Événements associés

• Annexion de la Crimée ; la guerre commence dans le Donbas Févr. – mars 2014

  Territorial change · Military · Political

• Minsk II gèle la guerre sans la régler Févr. 2015

  Diplomatique

• Invasion à grande échelle 24 févr. 2022

  Militaire · Changement territorial

• Ouverture du corridor céréalier de la mer Noire Juil. 2022

  Economic · Diplomatic

• Déclarations d’annexion et mobilisation partielle sept. 2022

  Political · Territorial change · Leadership change

• Un format de négociation trilatéral, et une échéance qui lui est attachée Févr. 2026

  Diplomatique · Politique

• Le plan en 28 points et le processus de négociation qu’il a ouvert Nov. 2025 – mars 2026

  Diplomatic · Political · Territorial change

• Une pause qui couvre deux capitales et rien d’autre 5–8 sept. 2026

  Diplomatique · Militaire

Organisations

Structures par lesquelles cette relation s’exerce. Elles n’y sont pas parties — les parties sont les deux acteurs ci-dessus.

Lieux

Repères que ce module publie déjà. Cette fiche n’ajoute aucune précision géographique qui lui soit propre.

Ce qui reste inconnu

• The revised plan produced at Geneva in November 2025 has never been published; "ninety per cent agreed" is one party's characterisation.
• The security guarantees Ukraine seeks and the "reliable security guarantees" the 28-point plan offered are undefined in every text read.

Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi

• The negotiating track can be read as a path to a settlement or as a means by which each side manages its patron; the September pause is consistent with both.

Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.