Rosja — Ukraina

Podsumowanie

The relationship's modern shape was set in 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and armed the separatist entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, and in the Minsk agreements that froze rather than resolved that war. The full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022 failed to take Kyiv, took and lost ground in the south and east through 2022–23, and settled into a drone-saturated attrition along a front of over a thousand kilometres. Russia declared the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in September 2022 and holds most of the first two and part of the second two; Ukraine's constitution and stated policy require the restoration of its 1991 borders, and it has struck deep into Russia — refineries, export terminals, the Black Sea Fleet — since 2023. A United States-led negotiating push began in November 2025 around a 28-point plan Ukraine and its European allies read as reproducing Russia's maximalist demands; trilateral talks in Geneva in February 2026 and further rounds through the spring produced no ceasefire, and the capitals-only strike pause of 5–8 September 2026 lasted exactly as long as it was written for. Russia continues to require Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas; Ukraine continues to seek security guarantees with a United States backstop. Vigil records the war's shape and the negotiation's state, and characterises neither side's war aims beyond what each has said.

Dlaczego to ważne

This is the relationship every Watch question in the module measures movement against — force regeneration, air-defence supply, energy resilience, refining under strike, the negotiating architecture — and the reference case for how Vigil records an interstate war: as a standing adversarial relationship with a territorial dispute inside it, not as a front line.

Porozumienia

• Minsk II (Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements) · podpisano 2015-02-12 · ended 2022-02-22

  The instrument that froze the Donbas war; Russia's recognition of the two separatist entities on 21 February 2022 and the invasion three days later ended it. Recorded as the last signed bilateral framework.

• Black Sea Grain Initiative · podpisano 2022-07-22 · ended 2023-07-17

  The UN- and Türkiye-brokered export arrangement, the one wartime instrument both parties signed; Russia withdrew in July 2023 and Ukraine has since run its own corridor.

• Capitals-only strike pause · podpisano 2026-09-05 · ended 2026-09-08

  A three-day pause covering the two capitals, agreed through the negotiating track and observed for its stated duration; nothing replaced it.

Powiązane wydarzenia

• Aneksja Krymu; początek wojny w Donbasie lut. – mar. 2014

  Territorial change · Military · Political

• Mińsk II zamraża wojnę, nie rozwiązując jej lut. 2015

  Dyplomacja

• Pełnoskalowa inwazja 24 lut. 2022 r.

  Wojsko · Zmiana terytorialna

• Otwarcie czarnomorskiego korytarza zbożowego lip. 2022

  Economic · Diplomatic

• Deklaracje aneksji i częściowa mobilizacja wrz. 2022 r.

  Political · Territorial change · Leadership change

• Trójstronny format negocjacyjny i przypisany mu termin lut. 2026

  Dyplomacja · Polityka

• Plan 28 punktów i proces negocjacyjny, który otworzył lis. 2025 r. – mar. 2026 r.

  Diplomatic · Political · Territorial change

• Przerwa obejmująca dwie stolice i nic poza nimi 5–8 września 2026 r.

  Dyplomacja · Wojsko

Organizacje

Struktury, przez które działa ta relacja. Nie są jej stronami — stronami są dwaj aktorzy wymienieni powyżej.

Miejsca

Znaczniki, które ten moduł już publikuje. Ten wpis nie dodaje własnej precyzji geograficznej.

Co pozostaje nieznane

• The revised plan produced at Geneva in November 2025 has never been published; "ninety per cent agreed" is one party's characterisation.
• The security guarantees Ukraine seeks and the "reliable security guarantees" the 28-point plan offered are undefined in every text read.

Inne odczytania, które przesłanki również dopuszczają

• The negotiating track can be read as a path to a settlement or as a means by which each side manages its patron; the September pause is consistent with both.

Wymienione, ponieważ ocena zawarta we wpisie nie jest jedyną, na jaką pozwalają jego źródła — a nie jako zastrzeżenie osłabiające powyższą ocenę.