Russland — Ukraine

Zusammenfassung

The relationship's modern shape was set in 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and armed the separatist entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, and in the Minsk agreements that froze rather than resolved that war. The full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022 failed to take Kyiv, took and lost ground in the south and east through 2022–23, and settled into a drone-saturated attrition along a front of over a thousand kilometres. Russia declared the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in September 2022 and holds most of the first two and part of the second two; Ukraine's constitution and stated policy require the restoration of its 1991 borders, and it has struck deep into Russia — refineries, export terminals, the Black Sea Fleet — since 2023. A United States-led negotiating push began in November 2025 around a 28-point plan Ukraine and its European allies read as reproducing Russia's maximalist demands; trilateral talks in Geneva in February 2026 and further rounds through the spring produced no ceasefire, and the capitals-only strike pause of 5–8 September 2026 lasted exactly as long as it was written for. Russia continues to require Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas; Ukraine continues to seek security guarantees with a United States backstop. Vigil records the war's shape and the negotiation's state, and characterises neither side's war aims beyond what each has said.

Warum es wichtig ist

This is the relationship every Watch question in the module measures movement against — force regeneration, air-defence supply, energy resilience, refining under strike, the negotiating architecture — and the reference case for how Vigil records an interstate war: as a standing adversarial relationship with a territorial dispute inside it, not as a front line.

Abkommen

• Minsk II (Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements) · unterzeichnet 2015-02-12 · ended 2022-02-22

  The instrument that froze the Donbas war; Russia's recognition of the two separatist entities on 21 February 2022 and the invasion three days later ended it. Recorded as the last signed bilateral framework.

• Black Sea Grain Initiative · unterzeichnet 2022-07-22 · ended 2023-07-17

  The UN- and Türkiye-brokered export arrangement, the one wartime instrument both parties signed; Russia withdrew in July 2023 and Ukraine has since run its own corridor.

• Capitals-only strike pause · unterzeichnet 2026-09-05 · ended 2026-09-08

  A three-day pause covering the two capitals, agreed through the negotiating track and observed for its stated duration; nothing replaced it.

Verwandte Ereignisse

• Annexion der Krim; der Krieg im Donbas beginnt Feb. – März 2014

  Territorial change · Military · Political

• Minsk II friert den Krieg ein, ohne ihn zu lösen Feb. 2015

  Diplomatisch

• Großangelegte Invasion 24. Feb. 2022

  Militärisch · Territoriale Veränderung

• Getreidekorridor im Schwarzen Meer öffnet Juli 2022

  Economic · Diplomatic

• Annexionserklärungen und Teilmobilmachung Sep. 2022

  Political · Territorial change · Leadership change

• Ein trilaterales Verhandlungsformat und eine daran geknüpfte Frist Feb. 2026

  Diplomatisch · Politisch

• Der 28-Punkte-Plan und der Verhandlungsweg, den er eröffnete Nov. 2025 – März 2026

  Diplomatic · Political · Territorial change

• Eine Pause, die zwei Hauptstädte umfasst und sonst nichts 5.–8. Sep. 2026

  Diplomatisch · Militärisch

Organisationen

Strukturen, über die diese Beziehung wirkt. Keine Parteien der Beziehung — die Parteien sind die beiden Akteure oben.

Orte

Markierungen, die dieses Modul bereits veröffentlicht. Dieser Eintrag fügt keine eigene geografische Genauigkeit hinzu.

Was unbekannt bleibt

• The revised plan produced at Geneva in November 2025 has never been published; "ninety per cent agreed" is one party's characterisation.
• The security guarantees Ukraine seeks and the "reliable security guarantees" the 28-point plan offered are undefined in every text read.

Lesarten, die die Belege ebenfalls stützen

• The negotiating track can be read as a path to a settlement or as a means by which each side manages its patron; the September pause is consistent with both.

Aufgeführt, weil die Einschätzung des Eintrags nicht die einzige ist, die seine Quellen zulassen — nicht als Absicherung der obigen Einschätzung.