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Coverage · Taiwan Strait

Key event

The median line ceases to function as a restraint

From August 2022 Essential Taiwan Strait

What happened

Following the August 2022 exercises, crossings of the Taiwan Strait median line by PLA aircraft become routine rather than exceptional, and Beijing publicly rejects the line's existence as a recognised limit. Taiwan's defence ministry continues to report crossings daily.

This is the single clearest illustration of how grey-zone pressure actually works: no announcement, no incident, no threshold crossed — an unwritten restraint observed for half a century simply stopped being observed, and the new normal was never given back. It is also why "no significant change" in a reporting period can still describe deterioration.

Confidence: High

WhenFrom August 2022
WhereTaiwan Strait
KindMilitary
ArenaThe Strait and the median line
Confidence: High Sources: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense — activity reporting↗ · CSIS China Power Project and ChinaPower analysis↗ · Reuters — Taiwan and China coverage↗ Methodology Corrections

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Watch questions this event bears on

Standing analytical questions whose evidence runs through this event, each with its latest review. Derived from the Watch object, never restated here.

  • EconomicAre commercial operators repricing Taiwan risk?Unchanged
    1. 2026-08-28: Baseline
    2. 2026-09-13: No material change
    3. 2026-09-20: No material change
    4. 2026-09-27: No material change
    5. 2026-10-04: No material change
    6. 2026-10-11: No material change

Connected records

4 records that this event names, or that name it — every one an explicit reference in a published record, nothing inferred from subject matter.

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Where this fits

This is one entry in the Taiwan Strait timeline. The full Key Events surface carries every dated turning point with its filters and its essential subset, and this event in place shows what came before and after it. How Vigil grades, dates and sources its claims is set out in the methodology.