Relationships

The alliance that puts a Taiwan contingency inside Japanese territory before it is a Japanese decision.

Active Since 1960 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

A 1951 treaty, deepened since 2022, covering the southern approaches to a strait it does not mention.

Active Since 1951 Last change 2022 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

The recognition that makes every other relationship in this module unofficial.

Active Since 1979 Confidence: High Assessed as of 2026-09 Last reviewed 2026-10-14

A state whose economy, tax base and international standing rest on one industry — which is also the reason anyone would fight over it.

Active Since 1987 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

Deep interdependence and sharpening security friction, held by the same two governments at the same time.

Active Since 1972 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

Expanding technology contact with a partner that will not recognise it, from a bloc aligned on controls but not on defence.

Active Since 2022 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

A supply relationship governed by one country's domestic statute, and in 2026 handled as something that could be traded.

Active Since 1979 Last change 2026-10-02 Confidence: High Assessed as of 2026-10 Last reviewed 2026-10-04

The most complete recent case of economic coercion against a democracy — real damage, no policy change, and a quiet wind-back.

Dormant Since 2020 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

A demonstration, aimed at everyone else, that positions taken on Taiwan carry costs for third countries.

Active Since 2025-11 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-08 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

A restriction architecture aimed at one country that regulates the industry of another.

Active Since 2022 Last change 2026-01 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-06 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

No diplomatic relations and the closest of neighbours — a relationship conducted through unofficial channels whose security content has grown since 2021.

Active Since 1972-09 Last change 2025-11-07 Confidence: Moderate Assessed as of 2026-08 Last reviewed 2026-09-14

A deterrent that is a belief rather than a commitment — which costs nothing to maintain and can be devalued by statements alone.

Active Since 1979 Last change 2026-05 Confidence: High Assessed as of 2026-08 Last reviewed 2026-09-01

One claim, two governments, no relations — the dispute the whole module is about, held below the threshold of force since 1979.

Active Since 1949-12 Last change 2025-12-29 Confidence: High Assessed as of 2026-09 Last reviewed 2026-10-11