No system record yet
Insurgent pressure: 8 published markers in Sahel carry this system value. No system record has been written for it yet; everything on this page is derived from those markers and the records that name them.
Nodes
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- Tillabéri regionBorder zone · broad region
- KéniérobaContested / high-pressure town
- Liptako-Gourma tri-border regionBorder zone · broad region
- MénakaContested / high-pressure town
- BandiagaraContested / high-pressure town
- FarabougouContested / high-pressure town
- OuallamContested / high-pressure town
- TahouaMajor city
Transmission chains through this system
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Road insecurity → market supply → hunger and service collapseCivilian impact · as of 2026-07
- asset Confirmed
- disruption Confirmed
- exposure Confirmed
- significance Plausible exposure
Watch questions bearing on it
- Does the JNIM–FLA alignment hold?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Does the state put back a position it has lost?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
- Is Islamic State Sahel's pressure in western Niger reaching the capital's approaches and the export infrastructure?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Is JNIM moving from raids to sustained territorial administration?active · No material change 2026-09-27
Open in Explore Interactive: select this record and follow what connects to it.
Derived from 8 published markers and the records that name them. No review date is shown because no system record has been reviewed. All systems in this module →