A container ship struck in the strait sinks, and the attacks reach the Saudi Gulf coast

What happened

UKMTO's weekly overview of 16 October lists four ships struck in the strait on 13 October. One, a container ship, caught fire, drifted and sank in the strait on 14 October, its crew evacuated without injury; Singapore's maritime authority confirmed the sinking of the Singapore-flagged GFS PRIDE, which specialist press called the second confirmed sinking of a large ocean-going ship in the war. Iran said the ship struck a mine. On 16 October UKMTO, as relayed, reported a tanker struck about 68 nautical miles north-east of Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia. UKMTO counted twelve attacks in the week to 14 October, ten of them in the strait, said most attacked vessels no longer report to it, and put combined transits for the week about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels. On 13 October Iran's navy said it had deployed units in a new formation east of the strait and urged ships to coordinate with Iranian armed forces for safe passage.

THE PHYSICAL RISK SPREAD, AND THE COUNT BECAME A FLOOR. A month earlier the strikes were in the strait's lanes; in this window they reached Saudi Arabia's Gulf coast and sank a ship. UKMTO's own statement that most attacked ships do not report makes its tally a lower bound, and its pattern — strikes falling mostly on the southern route while most ships broadcasting their positions use the route through Iranian waters — is the sharpest fact in the window. Iran's navy statement is a declared reach over waters no riparian has given it authority over; it is unilateral and it is not a régime. Nothing here establishes who fired on any vessel: Iran claimed none of that week's strikes, and its mine account of the sinking is a party's.

Confidence: Moderate