The heaviest Karabakh fighting since 1994: Azerbaijani forces take small positions along the line of contact, both sides lose over a hundred killed, and a Moscow-brokered ceasefire restores quiet without restoring the status quo ante.
Why it mattersThe dress rehearsal for 2020 — proof that Azerbaijan's rearmament had changed the balance, that the ceasefire had no enforcement mechanism, and that Moscow would broker rather than defend. The lesson each capital drew was the one it acted on four years later.
Confidence: HighSources: Established historical record · International Crisis GroupMethodologyCorrections