What happened
A Russian-brokered ceasefire ends the First Karabakh War with Armenian forces holding the former NKAO and seven surrounding districts. No peacekeepers deploy; the line of contact is held by the armies that made it, under an OSCE Minsk Group mediation that will run for twenty-six years without settlement.
The ceasefire froze a victor's map without legitimising it — a "no war, no peace" that armed both sides' politics. Its central flaw, a line without guarantees, is what 2016 probed and 2020 erased.
Confidence: High
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