28點計畫及其開啟的談判軌道

發生了什麼

2025年11月中旬，圍繞一份由美國特使Steve Witkoff與其俄羅斯對口人Kirill Dmitriev擬定的28點計畫，新一輪外交推動展開。據報導，該計畫將限制烏克蘭武裝部隊規模、要求以憲法承諾不加入北約、禁止北約部隊進駐烏克蘭、承認俄羅斯對克里米亞、頓內次克與盧甘斯克的主權、在一百天內舉行烏克蘭選舉、解除制裁並讓俄羅斯重返G8——並給予烏克蘭文本中未加定義的「可靠安全保證」。烏克蘭及其歐洲盟友認為它複製了俄羅斯的最大化要求。2025年11月23日至24日在日內瓦舉行的會談產生了一份修訂計畫，據報以限制俄羅斯所得的歐洲反提案為基礎；其細節從未公布。澤倫斯基總統在12月底表示，協議已有百分之九十達成共識。2026年1月下旬與2月在阿拉伯聯合大公國與瑞士舉行的另外三輪會談未有突破，原定3月初在阿聯舉行的會談，則因美國與以色列對伊朗的軍事行動而延期。

This is the file's answer to its own standing question about whether there is a negotiating architecture or only meetings — and the answer is: an architecture exists, and the thing it has not been able to hold is the only thing that matters. Formats, envoys, venues and rounds are all now established. So is a pattern in which the unresolved item is always the same: territory, and the security guarantee that is offered against it. The "ninety per cent agreed" figure is worth reading carefully, because the remaining tenth is not a residue — it is the war. Two further features deserve recording. The revised plan that Ukraine and Europe consider the live text has not been made public, so the most consequential document in the negotiation cannot be assessed by anyone outside it. And the track has already been suspended once for reasons entirely external to this war, which is a reminder that the mediator's attention is a variable in its own right.

信心：中等