發生了什麼
對油輪的打擊持續至10月的前十天：UKMTO報告，10月5日一艘油輪在海峽內受損並發生機艙火災；10月6日，懸掛巴拿馬國旗的On Peace號在Limah外海約九浬處遭打擊並起火，阿曼國防部將十名船員撤往Khasab，據印度的說法，十九名船員中至少十二人受傷。10月9日，革命衛隊聲稱已因「Sun Shine」號使用海峽南段的「未經授權航路」而使其起火，表示對「違規」船舶的行動將不再限於海峽之內，並表示與美國合作的公司將受到制裁，其船舶將成為目標。Kpler統計10月6日有七艘大宗商品船通過海峽，為7月23日以來最少。在革命衛隊提出聲稱的同一天，中央司令部表示已清除主要航道的水雷，並宣布航道對未違反美國對伊朗制裁的船舶開放；10月10日，它表示一架美國戰鬥機使一艘駛離伊朗港口的船舶失去動力，這是自7月14日對伊朗港口實施封鎖以來的第四艘。
THE ATTRIBUTION LAYER MOVED. Through the strikes of late September no party claimed a ship. Here the Guard claimed one in its own name, gave a reason — a route Iran has not authorised — and stated a reach beyond the water it says it controls. That is a legal claim enforced unilaterally; no other riparian accepts it, and it is not a régime. Two blockades now run side by side: the United States stops ships leaving Iranian ports, and the Guard strikes ships on routes it has not authorised. Central Command's "open" is conditional on the first and says nothing about the second. The record does not establish who fired on the vessels the Guard did not claim, or that the claimed "Sun Shine" is the carrier UKMTO placed off Al-Jazira. Clearance is recorded as the command's statement only; Vigil publishes nothing on where any hazard lies.
信心：中等
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