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Force Atlas

俄羅斯的地區存在 — 高加索

GROUPING · NOT A COMMAND

俄羅斯及結盟結構 進行中
評估截至
2026-08
已檢視
2026-09-28
信心
中等
  • Vigil類別圖示 · 非官方徽記
識別來源

Vigil類別圖示——依此紀錄自身的領域、層級與角色繪製。並非官方徽記。

概要

導覽分組,而非指揮關係:俄羅斯在本區域公開記載的軍事存在——亞美尼亞的Gyumri基地,租期至2044年;阿布哈茲與南奧塞提亞的駐軍,其法律基礎隨2026年5月南奧塞提亞條約而深化;已撤出的卡拉巴赫維和部隊;以及在亞美尼亞的邊防部隊安排,如今已在所有口岸終止。綜合來看,此分組顯示了變化的輪廓:在亞美尼亞能以協議終止之處,俄羅斯的存在收縮;在事實上的當局邀請之處,則有所擴張。僅以結構層級描述。

範圍
結構、角色、沿革與連結。已發布6筆下屬紀錄。
隸屬
隸屬:已證實
來源
紀錄所載:4
紀錄狀態
部分
廣泛活動地區
Armenia (Gyumri, with an air element at Erebuni), Abkhazia (Gudauta) and South Ossetia (Tskhinvali and Java) at structural level; the Chechen Republic for the interior formations; Karabakh historically, until June 2024.
重要歷史
The presence is a Soviet inheritance reshaped by three wars. The 102nd Military Base in Armenia dates from a 1995 treaty on the lineage of a Soviet division facing the Turkish frontier, and its term was extended in 2010 to 2044; the border troops in Armenia served under a 1992 treaty on the frontiers with Türkiye and Iran. The 2008 war added the 4th and 7th Military Bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in early 2009, under forty-nine-year agreements with the de facto authorities that Georgia regards as occupation. The 2020 Karabakh war added a peacekeeping contingent under the trilateral statement, which observed the 2022–2023 blockade and the September 2023 offensive without acting and was withdrawn by agreement with Azerbaijan in April–June 2024. Since then the presence has moved in two directions at once: Armenia, after freezing its CSTO participation in 2024, asked for the border troops to leave the checkpoints one by one between August 2024 and the start of 2026 while leaving the Gyumri lease untouched; and the May 2026 treaty of deepened integration with South Ossetia extended the legal basis of the garrison there. The Chechen security structures are filed here because the module's North Caucasus question runs through them, not because they share anything with the bases.
優勢
Basing agreements with long terms, a garrison in each of the two de facto entities that defines their security, and in Armenia a base the realignment has not touched — the grouping's clearest marker of the limit of what Yerevan has chosen to end.
限制
No regional command: six formations under four institutions, whose only shared attribute is the state they belong to. A presence that Armenia has reduced by request, that has no on-the-ground role left in the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict, and whose de facto-entity garrisons guarantee entities no other state recognises. Nothing here describes strength, dispositions or activity; the members are structural records only.

下屬部隊

Brigades 3

Units & detachments 1

Other organisations 2

各列僅為版面配置 — 位置與順序不代表任何層級、重要性、先後或強度。所顯示的每一筆紀錄都是所選組織的直屬下級。標題衍生自各紀錄自身的類型與層級。它們不是指揮層,部隊樹中也不存在這樣的層級。

檢視完整結構 →

戰役

將此組織列為參與方的戰役。該關係由戰役紀錄擁有並評定等級;此清單為計算所得。

敏感度:公開 · 結構性 信心:中等 來源: Official government statements · Established international media reporting · Reuters↗ · Civil.ge↗ 方法論 更正

評估截至 — 2026-08 最近檢視 — 2026-09-28

在結構中檢視此部隊 互動式:選取此紀錄並追蹤與其關聯的內容。

此部隊涉及的Watch問題

證據經由此部隊的常設分析問題,各附最新一次檢視。內容衍生自Watch物件,從不在此重述。

  • 政治車臣接班問題是否會產生可觀察的事件?未變
    1. 2026-08-16:無實質變化
    2. 2026-08-23:無實質變化
    3. 2026-08-30:無實質變化
    4. 2026-09-06:無實質變化
    5. 2026-09-13:無實質變化
    6. 2026-09-20:無實質變化
    7. 2026-09-27:觀察到變動
    8. 2026-10-04:無實質變化

相關紀錄

此組織所提及、或提及此組織的紀錄共2筆——每一筆都是已發布紀錄中的明確引用,沒有任何一筆是依主題推斷而來。

指揮或資助方1

提及此組織的行為者紀錄。

參與1

參與方名單中列有此組織的戰役。