VIGIL CONSILIUM
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Coverage · Syria

Key event

Russia intervenes

September 2015 Essential Latakia

What happened

With the Assad government visibly losing, Russia launches an air campaign from Khmeimim air base — its first major expeditionary war since the Soviet era — reversing the war's direction alongside Iranian-organised ground forces, and securing long-term basing at Khmeimim and Tartus.

The intervention saved the regime for nine years and made Russia the war's indispensable broker. Its bases are the surviving stake now under negotiation with the government that replaced its client.

Confidence: High

WhenSeptember 2015
WhereLatakia
KindMilitary · Diplomatic
Confidence: High Sources: Established historical record Methodology Corrections

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Watch questions this event bears on

Standing analytical questions whose evidence runs through this event, each with its latest review. Derived from the Watch object, never restated here.

  • MilitaryDo Russia's bases stay?Unchanged
    1. 2026-08-23: No material change
    2. 2026-08-30: No material change
    3. 2026-09-06: No material change
    4. 2026-09-13: No material change
    5. 2026-09-20: Movement observed
    6. 2026-09-27: Assessment changed
    7. 2026-10-04: No material change
    8. 2026-10-11: No material change
  • DiplomaticDoes Iran re-enter Syria — through an embassy, a route or a network?Movement
    1. 2026-09-14: Baseline
    2. 2026-09-20: No material change
    3. 2026-09-27: No material change
    4. 2026-10-04: No material change
    5. 2026-10-11: Movement observed

Connected records

2 records that this event names, or that name it — every one an explicit reference in a published record, nothing inferred from subject matter.

Actors1

Actor records this event names.

Participants1

Organisations this event records, with the role and confidence it states.

Where this fits

This is one entry in the Syria timeline. The full Key Events surface carries every dated turning point with its filters and its essential subset, and this event in place shows what came before and after it. How Vigil grades, dates and sources its claims is set out in the methodology.