What happened
After a US pullback announcement, Turkish forces and backed factions take a border strip between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn from the SDF; hundreds of thousands are temporarily displaced. The SDF strikes its first security arrangement with Damascus and Moscow, and US forces consolidate around the oil fields and the east.
2019 previewed 2026: US commitment proved revocable, Turkish pressure proved decisive, and the SDF's fallback proved to be Damascus. Every actor drew the lessons it applied when the state fell.
Confidence: High
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