Conflict coverage · Iran–Gulf

Gulf production shut-ins reach their peak

May – Jun 2026Key event

EnergyMarket reaction

Production shut-ins attributed to the strait closure are estimated at 11.3 million barrels a day in May 2026 and forecast at 11.34 million in June, against 7.53 million in March. OECD oil inventories reach their lowest level since 2003.

Why it mattersThe disruption deepened for four months rather than being absorbed by adjustment, which is what distinguishes a structural access failure from a supply interruption. These figures measure production made unavailable — not exports, not capacity, and not a permanent loss.

Confidence: HighSources: IEA electricity and energy-security analysisMethodology Corrections

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Related structure

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Part of

Campaigns whose record places this event inside them.

The 2026 warInterdiction and deepening disruption

Where this fits

This is one entry in the Iran–Gulf timeline. The full Key Events surface carries every dated turning point with its filters and its essential subset, and this event in place shows what came before and after it. How Vigil grades, dates and sources its claims is set out in the methodology.