What happened
Prime Minister Pashinyan announces Armenia has frozen its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, citing its failure to respond to Azerbaijani incursions — a freeze later deepened by non-payment and non-attendance, though not a formal exit.
The clearest institutional measure of Russia's regional decline: a treaty ally publicly declaring the guarantee worthless while an EU mission monitors its border and its officials negotiate in Washington. Reversal remains possible — which is exactly what keeps it an indicator.
Confidence: High
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