美國與臺灣海峽 → 臺灣（中華民國）

摘要

The United States is Taiwan's principal arms supplier and security reference point, selling under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act — a domestic American statute rather than a bilateral treaty, which is the structural point. In December 2025 the administration notified Congress of more than eleven billion dollars in new Foreign Military Sales cases, the largest single package by value in the history of the relationship. In mid-May 2026 the President said publicly that he had not approved a further package, reported at around fourteen billion, that the decision depended on China, and that it was a good negotiating chip. The two together are the record: the supply is large, it is governed by American domestic process, and in 2026 it was openly described as an element in a negotiation with the other party. Deliveries on older cases continued meanwhile: the first two F-16 Block 70 fighters of a 2019 case arrived on 2 October 2026, while the larger package remained under review.

為何重要

Taiwan's defence planning assumes a supplier whose decisions are made in another country's political calendar and, in 2026, explicitly with reference to relations with Beijing. That makes the delivery pipeline a political variable rather than a logistical one, and it is why this module treats American arms decisions as an observable in their own right.

協議

• Taiwan Relations Act · 1979年簽署

  A domestic United States statute, not a bilateral agreement and not a defence commitment. It provides the legal basis for arms sales and for unofficial relations, and obliges no particular response to an attack.

相關事件

• 美國有史以來對臺灣知會的最大一筆軍售案 2025年12月

  Weapons deliveries · Diplomatic

• 艾布蘭案結案 — 一道交付階梯全部完成 2026年4月

  武器交付

• 一筆14十億美元的軍售案被當作「談判籌碼」擱置 2026

  Weapons deliveries · Diplomatic

• 首兩架新造F-16 Block 70抵達 — 一個軍售案進入交付 2026年10月2日

  武器交付

組織

此關係藉以運作的結構。它們並非關係的當事方——當事方是上方的兩個行為者。

仍然未知的事項

• Vigil publishes no quantities, delivery schedules, backlogs or inventory figures. Notification, approval, contracting and delivery are four different stages and reporting frequently conflates them; this record does not attempt to reconcile them.
• The status of the reported $14bn package at the time of review is not resolved, and no source establishes what would release it.
• Training and advisory activity is described at the level of published reporting. Its scale, locations and content are not recorded here.

證據同樣支持的其他解讀

• The 2026 handling can be read as a transactional approach that has devalued a deterrent resting on belief, or as a negotiating posture with no effect on what is eventually delivered. The distinction is not resolvable from outside and matters more than the dollar figures.

列出這些解讀，是因為該紀錄本身的評估並非其來源所允許的唯一評估 — 而不是對上述評估的保留。